The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 06 March 2011 /

Its Rory Sabbatini's to lose now but Steve thinks there's hope...

10:05- March 06, 2011

It pains me to say it but only one man deserves to win this week, and I haven't backed him. For the second day running Rory Sabbatini shot the best round of the day as he continued to putt brilliantly and with a five shot lead going into today's final round he really ought to take the world of beating. Tied second are my man YE Yang and Jerry Kelly and, giving me some hope, Kelly thinks the task in hand isn't impossible.

"It's catchable in three holes," he said. "You never know what three holes they may be. You've just got to play solid, get some birdies, and you never know."

And he's right, on such a demanding course and in tough conditions anything can happen.

If Sabbatini does mess up I must have an outstanding chance of collecting with Yang. It's very hard to see anyone other than Yang or Kelly capitalising on a Sabba flop. Tour rookies Gary Woodland and Kyle Stanley sit in fourth and fifth places and they're the only other players not trading at a triple-figure price this morning.

So can Sabbatini get beat? My instinct initially said no but with further reflection; I think he's vulnerable. He's a five times winner on the US PGA Tour but I never seem to get him right at all. Whenever I've backed him he's disappointed and he's certainly capable of getting jumpy and making a mess of things. In fact, looking at his last four efforts when leading with a round to go, there's definitely scope for an upset later.

You can't fault his last effort, at the 2009 Byron Nelson Championship. On that occasion, tied for the lead with a round to go, he kicked on and shot 64 to comfortably win by two but his three previous efforts with the lead were appalling. Admittedly, he only led by one on each of those occasions, opposed to the much wider margin he holds today, but even so.

At the 2008 Texas Open he shot 72 to slump from first to eighth, losing by seven. At the 2007 Australian PGA Championship, his final round 74 saw him drop to tenth, losing by eight shots, and at the 2007 Bridgestone Invitational, Tiger Woods put him to the sword and turned Sabbatini's one shot lead into an eight shot defeat, as Rory tamely scored 74.

That's enough evidence to give me hope and enough to discourage anyone thinking of piling in on the feisty South African at the [1.36] available.

Watch out for the early start today. With thunderstorms forecast for later, the tee-times are earlier than normal, with the final three-ball getting underway at 3.55pm UK time.

I'll be back tomorrow with my De-Brief.

9:45- March 05, 2011

The wind finally abated yesterday afternoon and the late starters reaped the benefit. Overall, those assigned a morning start on Thursday and an afternoon one yesterday shot 0.68 shots better over the two rounds, making Rory Sabbatini's performance in the morning even more impressive.

Sabbatini had been showing improved form of late but the switch to a new putter this week really seems to have done the trick. Remarkably, he made just 21 putts yesterday on his way to shooting a tournament record equalling six under par 64 and he had looked set to go into today's third round with the lead but then Tour rookie Kyle Stanley sneaked by him in the easing afternoon conditions to take up the running on -6, with Charl Schwartzel two behind Sabbatini in third on -3.

It looks as though the leaders are going to enjoy the better conditions today and a steady nerve could see one of them open up a gap before tomorrow's final round but I'm not tempted. Surely Sabbatini can't keep up the miraculous putting and all three have weaknesses. On this course accuracy from the tee is supposed to be key but not one of them is inside the top 100 for driving accuracy this week. If I had to pick one of the three it would be Schwartzel but for now I'm going to leave well alone. Besides, despite shooting over par yesterday, my man Yang's still right in the hunt on -1.

The big disappointment yesterday was Lee Westwood. He dropped three shots late on, having been matched at a low of just [3.6], and now sits alongside Yang. Keen to regroup after losing his world number one status he's a real threat but not at a single-figure price with so much ground to make up.

10:35 - March 04, 2011

The briefest of glimpses at the early leaderboard yesterday showed that conditions were tough in Florida, as bogeys far outweighed birdies. I thought watching my picks dropping shots like confetti would be a particularly depressing way to spend the afternoon so I took myself off for a long walk.

When I got back, as suspected, Anthony Kim and Stephen Ames had given up decent starts and slipped down the leaderboard but just as frustrating was the start made by Matt Bettencourt. Regular readers will know I've been doggedly following him this year - considering him liable to pop up at a monster price. So to see him sitting in second place, a shot behind Spencer Levin (who'd been on the shortlist!), on a week I'd given him a miss, was a little galling. Fortunately, he was still a huge price and I backed him at [90.0]. Then when he reached -3 to tie the lead, I went in again, this time at [65.0]. Unfortunately, he immediately made mistakes - double-bogeying the 15th and bogeying the 16th but he did manage to par the last two holes and he ended the day on level par, three off Levin's lead.

Kim and Ames finished up on two and three over par respectfully and looked out of it but as the day progressed and the weather didn't improve they slowly climbed the leaderboard.

When the TV coverage started it was obvious why the scoring was high. The wind was really gusting and the course was playing very tough, especially the 'Bear Trap' last four holes. The par three 15th averaged 3.49 and ranked third toughest, the par four 16th averaged 4.38 and was the fourth hardest hole and the vicious par three 17th saw around a third of the field find water with their tee-shots. It ranked the hardest hole on the course, with only eight birdies made there all day, averaging 3.69. Ordinarily a par five to finish is usually good news but there were only 12 birdies on 18 yesterday and that hole also averaged over par. This course has a remarkably tough finish and mental strength will be the key this week in these conditions.

The best of mine, thanks to a couple of long par saves on the 16th and 17th holes, was Y E Yang who, playing in the tougher afternoon conditions, somehow managed to shot -2. Watching the coverage and the ever-changing leaderboard, I thought the afternoon players had been particularly disadvantaged but there wasn't actually a huge discrepancy between the morning and afternoon scores, with the morning starters scoring just 0.15 strokes better on average. I've tried in vain to get an understanding of today's likely conditions. Forecasts vary slightly but it looks as though the wind may drop slightly for the afternoon starters, but they could encounter rain. On balance there's probably no real advantage either way.

A few players still need to finish up round one today as play was suspended as darkness fell last night but they'll come back early and round two will start on time. My man Yang tees off at 12:53 UK time and I'm hoping he can hang on - a level par round will see him in great shape going into the weekend. He's mentally tough and he'll need to be this week because it's going to be brutal.

I'm happy to stay as I am for now - I'm not tempted to get early leader Levin onside, even though he was on the shortlist before the off. Now I've seen the cruel conditions, I can see this event won by an experienced, mentally tough and patient pro and he doesn't fit that bill.

Pre-Event Picks

Y E Yang @ [55.0]
Anthony Kim @ [55.0]
Jason Dufner @ [110.0]
Stephen Ames @ an average of [210.0]

In-Running Plays

Matt Bettencourt - Backed an average of [84.0] during round one

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: