The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 26 June 2011 /

Steve hasn't given up hope of a monster win in Germany, as he continues to hunt out the winner in the Connecticut...

09.05- June 26, 2011

My big hope for the week, George Coetzee, is still in with a shout at the BMW International - two shots off Mark Foster's lead. Backed at [290.0], he's already been matched at a low of [6.0], but not with me. I was hanging on, hoping to trade at slightly less than that after round three.

After a slow start yesterday, when he failed to convert several birdie chances, stringing together ten straight pars, he finally started to nail a few putts and when he found the greenside bunker in two on the par five 18th hole, trailing Foster by one, it looked highly likely that he'd at least be playing in the final group today. Given he was trading shorter than Foster, I took the gamble that he'd get up-and-down, tie the lead, and give me plenty of time to lay some of my bet off but it didn't quite work out like that. He over-hit his bunker shot, three-putted for bogey and now trades at around [11.5].

Sergio Garcia and Retief Goosen (both alongside Coetzee on -12) are vying with leader Foster for favouritism but none make any appeal. I've now finally added to my pre-event picks with Matteo Manassero, a further two shots back on -10. There isn't a player above him that I'd be in a hurry to back in-contention at fairly short odds and at [16.0] I thought the young Italian looked a great price.

Fredrik Jacobson now leads the Travelers Championship with a round to go, by one from Bryce Molder, two from James Driscoll and three from the remainder. It looks like a commanding position for such an experienced and in-form player but I couldn't back Fredrik to finish off his dinner and those piling at less than [3.0] are brave souls indeed.

This event has been a mess from start to finish from my perspective but I am having one last tilt at catching the winner. Hunter Mahan looks in a perfect position to strike to me. As I've repeatedly argued, Hunter is a far better player from off the pace and given his course form here, which includes a win, two seconds and a fourth in the last five years, he looks poised for a low round later. It's far from inconceivable that he can make up the six shots he currently trails by. I managed to get a few pounds matched at as big as [75.0] overnight but anything over [50.0] is a great price.

10.35- June 25, 2011

After shooting -7 on day one at the BMW International, pre-event pick Gary Boyd started his second round yesterday lunchtime just three shots off the lead and I was really hopeful. He'd impressed in the mix on numerous occasions and, with scorning low, I was confident that he'd be in prime position this morning but my hopes were soon dashed. He was three-over par after just five holes and finished up shooting ten shots more than he had on Thursday! He now looks out of it - most disappointing. There was some good news yesterday though...

Backed before the off at a massive [290.0], George Coetzee is tied for the lead alongside Henrik Stenson on -10. He has his spectacular putting to thank for his lofty position and, if he's to maintain his position over the weekend, he needs to start hitting a few more fairways - he ranks 124th in the field for driving Accuracy so far! Fingers are crossed but hopes aren't high.

Just tucked in behind the leading pair is Pablo Larrazabal, who sounded very confident after round two. He said he was playing from tee-to-green better than he had all year, desperately wanted to get into the Open Championship and was intending to go for it this weekend. My days of taking that much notice of what players say about their game and confidence levels are long gone and I'm not in a hurry to back the young Spaniard. Nobody has hit more greens in regulation so far this week so his stats do back up his claims. He held every chance of victory here last year until a calamity on the 16th hole on Sunday but there's always a double-bogey around the corner with Pablo and he looks short enough to me.

Three and four shots off the lead respectfully, Retief Goosen and Martin Kaymer are the dangers according to the market. I'm not keen there either. Goose can't buy a putt and Kaymer has got hot in spells but he still doesn't look close to his best. It's a really tricky one to call at this stage and I'm happy to keep the powder dry for now and hope young George can keep it going.

If that event looks hard, the Travelers Championship appears impossible. It's a right mess; with round two yet to be completed after the suspension of play on Thursday and having had an early night last night, I've seen very little action.

My main pick, Bubba Watson, got to within one of the lead early on in round two and then completely lost the plot - dropping four shots in as many holes, whilst the majority were going the other way.

I haven't anyone in the mix at present but with rain-softened conditions, ultra low scores are out there and I haven't given up all hope just yet.

Last week's leading amateur at the US Open, Patrick Cantlay, shot 60 in round two yesterday and now leads by four shots on -13. He's already made history as that was the lowest round by an amateur at a US PGA Tour event and he's now bidding to be the first amateur to win one since Phil Mickelson way back in 1991.

Play resumes at midday UK time and I'm going to let the event roll for now. I've had a small bet on Heath Slocum at [85.0] and I've backed Zach Johnson back again but other than that I'm leaving well alone for now.

22.15- June 23, 2011

I wasn't going to kick off the blog until tomorrow morning but with what is developing into a very lengthy rain delay currently in place at the Travelers Championship - now seems as good a time as any.

I haven't added to my pre-event picks at the BMW International and I'm more than happy with my opening salvos after day one. Gary Boyd shot a superb seven under par 65 and led for most of the day, until Henrik Stenson, playing in the afternoon rain, birdied the last to sneak past him. Stenson had been considered before the off, given he'd bounced right back to form at last week's US Open and given he's a former winner here, but he wasn't quite big enough to tempt me.

He looks at bit short now at [5.5], with such a long way to go, but it's understandable. It doesn't look the strongest of leaderboards at this stage and when on-song he's a real class act.

Of my other picks, George Coetzee started slowly but finished with a flourish to shot -5 and he trails Stenson by just three. Whilst Ross Fisher (-1) was disappointing and Thorbjorn Olesen (+3) was pants.

At the Travelers, just six players have managed to complete round one so far. Incessant rain and thunder have seen play halted for several hours now and although there is talk of a resumption at some stage later, I'm not holding my breath!

Only three of my pre-event picks have started so far, with Tim Herron on -2 and four off Michael Bradley's early lead, faring best. He hit the front early on when he got to -4 through just seven holes but unfortunately he couldn't keep it going.

Although it's very early days, I've already had a couple of bets in-running, getting Ben Crane, who's currently on -4, onside at an average of [60.0] and I've traded Zach Johnson for a free bet to cover the week's stakes and a bit besides.

BMW International Pre-event picks

Ross Fisher @ [36.0]
Thorbjorn Olesen @ [110.0]
Gary Boyd @ an average of [120.0]
George Coetzee @ [290.0

In-running bet

Matteo Manassero @ [16.0] - Backed after round three]

Travelers Championship Pre-event picks

Bubba Watson @ [24.0]
Scott Verplank @ [80.0]
Paul Goydos @ [100.0]
Chad Campbell @ [110.0]
Tim Herron @ [180.0]
Corey Pavin @ [330.0]

In-running bets

Ben Crane - Backed at an average of [60.0] during round one
Zach Johnson - Backed at an average of [21.0] and layed at an average of [12.0] for a free bet during round one
Heath Slocum - @ [85.0] after round two
Zach Johnson - Backed back at [29.0] during round two
Hunter Mahan - Backed at an average of [60.0] - after round three

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