The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 12 February 2012 / 2

Steve's out of the game as they close out the event in Dubai so he's taken a good look at the state of play in California where Tiger looks the man to beat...

11.50 - February 12, 2012

Given Thomas Bjorn traded at just [3.30] after he'd played his approach to within 18 inches of the 9th hole yesterday and that one of my other pre-event selections, Martin Kaymer, was hot on his heels at the time, I was confident of a nice pick-up this week. Some dozen or so holes of the event later and I had no chance. Both players started poorly today and I've watched the final round with no real interest.

Lee Westwood isn't playing as well as he did yesterday but he's hanging on so far. Marcel Siem joined him at the top momentarily and Rafael Cabrera-Bello and Stephen Gallagher have now joined him. It's going to be a fascinating run-in but I'm playing no more. I'm just going to watch and try and enjoy it, though that may well be easier said than done!

After two wins and a second last year, this year's Middle East Swing has been nothing but a disappointment but it's no good moping, let's look at tonight's action...

Organisers, sponsors and TV executives have got the pairing they dreamed of at the A T & T Pebble Beach National, and I'm not talking about the final group containing PGA Tour maidens Charlie Wi and Ken Duke. I am of course referring to the penultimate pairing of Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, who will get their final rounds off and running at 17.29 this evening UK time.

I was possibly a tad brusque, writing of Wi as I did yesterday and he subsequently shot a solid bogey-free 69 to show me up and maintain his comfortable lead. With a three shot margin over veteran maiden Ken Duke he has an excellent chance of breaking his duck but I shall continue to swerve him at his now short price. We've seen players looking for their first win give up five and six shot third round leads over the last couple of weeks on the PGA Tour and I can see Wi following suit.

A case could be made for Duke, who will have slightly less pressure chasing, and who'll have positive vibes to draw on when he makes the turn - he shot a phenomenal course record 28 on the back nine at Pebble on Thursday but I can't help thinking the winner will come from further back and I'm sorry to say, I don't think it will be either of my pair - Phil Mickelson or Dustin Johnson.

After a poor result in Dubai and an overly hasty and far too big bet on Dustin Johnson, I'm putting the spade down for the week now but had I not been in the position I'm in, I would have had a modest play on Tiger Woods. He looks a perfectly fair price at around [3.85] and should Wi stumble, the two shot buffer Woods has to the remainder should make the difference.

I'd have liked to have seen Hunter Mahan a further shot back. He'd have been a much bigger price and the further back the better for Hunter. Much like Brandt Snedeker, Hunter needs to come from off the pace to win. He may well be far enough back to swoop here but he's far too dodgy for me to back at just [21.0].

Third round standings and prices to back as at 11.40am

Charlie Wi -15 [2.78]
Ken Duke -12 [15.0]
Tiger Woods -11 [3.85]
Dustin Johnson -9 [15.0]
Phil Mickelson -9 [18.0]
Hunter Mahan -9 [21.0]
Kevin Na -9 [40.0]
Brendon Todd -9 [80.0]
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I'll be back tomorrow with my De-brief and I'll try not to be too glum!

14.20 - February 11, 2012

It's been a disappointing morning for yours truly. The third round of the Dubai Desert Classic started with two of my picks in the thick of it but neither Martin Kaymer nor Thomas Bjorn did themselves justice today.

Kaymer seemed to lose his way halfway through round two if the truth be told, but his hole-in-one masked his indifferent play somewhat. Today he struggled all day and it's to his credit that he eked out a reasonable score. His two under par 70 sees him sitting two off Lee Westwood's -15 leading score and it gives him a chance tomorrow - if he can play better. If he can't, I don't think he can win.

Bjorn on the other hand played arguably the best golf in the field yesterday and started well enough today. Strolling up to the 9th green on -1 for the round and with an 18 inch putt to go to -2, and to take a two shot lead with the easier scoring nine to come, he must have felt great. He may even have thought about the winning line because something went wrong somewhere. His birdie attempt didn't even touch the hole. It was a shocker, and after that the wheels rattled for five holes before falling off completely. He finished with three bogeys in four holes and he's probably still having a serious word with himself. You never know, he may shoot the lights out tomorrow but I won't hold my breath.

I haven't added to my bets here but I should have done. I was far too greedy, inputting far too ambitious back requests about both George Coetzee and Ben Curtis. I could have taken [70.0] and [110.0] respectfully, just as play closed, and I'm kicking myself for not doing so. They're both considerably shorter now and just three off the lead.

Lee Westwood played impeccably today but Bjorn did yesterday and look what happened to him today! Trading at a shade under [3.0], he's of no interest whatsoever. He's just not reliable enough to take such a short price on. On the last three occasions Westwood's held a one shot lead he's been beaten and if that doesn't put you off, he's also failed to convert when he's either led by one, been tied for the lead or trailed by just a single stroke after three rounds, on the last 11 occasions.

Rory McIlroy's now the second favourite, at just [5.6], but just as he has in the last two years here, he's lost his way after leading at halfway. Maybe it's the greens speeding up? He trails by two and he could well rally tomorrow but the forecasted increase in wind won't help his cause.

I'm just going to hope for the best from my two for now. All the others in-contention are either infrequent or non-winners and I'm struggling to see alternatives. If Kaymer can find some form, at around [8.0], he's the value, but that's a big if I'm afraid.

Over in the States, at the A T & T Pebble Beach National, my man Phil Mickelson finally got his scoring boots on late on in round two and he's closed to within five of the lead. That's sounds like he's still got a lot to do but Charlie Wi, on -11, leads the field by three and if he comes back to them it's a bunched field.

The fact that Wi trades at [7.2] with such a lead is a reflection of how poor he is in the mix and I wouldn't advocate a Wi wager, not even a wee Wi wager!

I've already taken the plunge in-running and I'm ruing it now. I ploughed in to Dustin Johnson at an average of just [4.3] last night, after he'd played ten holes of round two. I thought that was far too big given he's due to play Monterey Peninsula, the easiest of the three courses, today. I hadn't bargained on him making such a mess of his last eight holes of round two though! He made three bogeys and one birdie after I backed him, so he dropped two shots just as everyone else was making ground but he's still in sole procession of second place on -8 and he's only [5.4] now. I think that shows how good the [4.3] was, not that I'm pleased I took it!

I'll be back tomorrow afternoon with a look at the state of play before round four.

09.05 - February 10, 2012

It's been an eventful morning - Rory McIlroy has moved imperiously to the top of the Dubai Desert Classic leaderboard, backing up yesterday's 66 with an even more impressive 65 and just as he looked in trouble, struggling to keep tabs with Rors, Martin Kaymer aced the 7th. Incredibly, it was his first hole-in-one ever.

It's a good job Kaymer doesn't bet very often, he's a lousy gambler. What about this for a poor deal. Each week he bets with his physio on whether he'll get a hole-in-one on the holes with a prize. If he fails, his coach gives him a whole €10, €20 if a car's involved. This week he won't be getting his €10 - his physio will be getting a pretty smart watch though!

McIlroy has hit [2.0] already, but there's a long way to go and those considering piling in to the talented Irishman might want to look at his four rounds last year when he shot 65 68 75 74. Sooner or later he's going to do what he did at last year's US Open and kick clear but the fact of the matter is, he doesn't usually and he looks very short to me.

I've added Richard Sterne at [70.0], as he could get off to a flier, starting out on the back nine around about now.

At the A T & T Pebble Beach National, I've added Graham DeLaet, backing him last night and again this morning, at an average of [90.0]. Danny Lee, Charlie Wi and Dustin Johnson are tied at the top on -9 and Tiger Woods is five back and surely too short at [7.0]?

I'll take a closer look at this one later but I can't see me doing anything else before play kicks off again.

19.55 - February 9, 2012

Despite one of my pre-event picks, defending champ Alvaro Quiros, dropping three shots in his first four holes, it hasn't been a bad day at the Dubai Desert Classic. The enigmatic Spaniard did manage to eventually compose himself and he ended the day on -2. Tied 35th and seven off the lead wasn't exactly the start I was hoping for but I certainly haven't given up on the big feller just yet. He trailed by ten shots at this stage last year and I've had a little top-up at [60.0].

Rafael Cabrera-Bello, today shot the low round I was hoping he'd shoot last Sunday (I backed him at a big price before round four in Qatar) and it could have been quite a bit better. Playing the back-nine first, he'd already gotten himself to -9 by the time he teed off on the par five 3rd but he pared in after that and all the talk of the first European Tour 59 soon came to nothing.

Quiros might have disappointed but two of my picks have fared well so far. Martin Kaymer and Thomas Bjorn both shot 66, as did favourite Rory McIlroy and the three of them are in the bunch in a tie for 4th on -6, three behind Cabrera-Bello.

I've just chucked a few quid at Nicholas Thompson (-4) at a crazy price. He hasn't been in sparkling form of late but he's a winner on the Nationwide Tour and three years ago he had a solid enough season on the PGA Tour, with half-a-dozen top-seven finishes.

It's very, very early days at the A T &T Pebble Beach National but it already looks as though I'm struggling with my picks. Nick Watney and Dustin Johnson are the two that have started the best so far. Coverage starts at 8.00pm on Sky but how much of it I'll be able to watch is debatable. These pro-ams are usually pretty hard to watch, with far too much inane coverage of the 'celebrities'.

Qatar Masters Pre-Event Selections
Martin Kaymer @ [10.0]
Alvaro Quiros @ [28.0]
Thomas Bjorn @ [30.0]
Thorbjørn Olesen @ [140.0]
Thongchai Jaidee @ [220.0]

In-Running Plays
Alvaro Quiros @ [60.0]
Richard Sterne @ [70.0]
Nicholas Thompson @ [350.0]

AT & T Pebble Beach National Pre-Event Selections:
Phil Mickelson @ [26.0]
John Mallinger @ an average of [90.0]
Jeff Maggert @ [130.0]
Daniel Chopra @ [260.0]

In-Running Plays
Graham DeLaet @ an average of [90.0]
Dustin Johnson @ [4.3]

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1. Anonymous | 11 February 2012

   Re McIlroy: you can't blame the speed of the greens for him spraying the ball over the place off the tee, he couldn't find a fairway today.

   Re Westwood: he wasn't impeccable today he also missed fairways but he putted much better. Westwood played impeccable yesterday and hit every green in regulation.

   Re Johnson: he is on -9

2. Steven Rawlings | 11 February 2012

   Hi Anonymous,

   Thanks for the feedback.

   I was being a tad sarcastic re Rory, hence the question mark. As I’d alluded to yesterday, he usually hits the buffers when he hits the front. As it happened, he did point to the greens as one of the reasons for his lacklustre performance. This is from the European Tour website...

   After struggling to recapture the sparkling form he displayed throughout the first two rounds, McIlroy acknowledged he had room for improvement ahead of Sunday’s play.

   “It was pretty ragged to say the least,” he admitted. “I think the conditions were a little tougher, the wind got up, and I had not really played in wind like that all week, so that sort of put me off a little bit, and the greens got a little firmer, pin positions were a little tougher.

   “It definitely didn't come as easy to me as it did the first couple of days. I’m going to go to the range and work on a few things, and see if I can iron it out for tomorrow.”

   As for Westwood, I concede, impeccable was exaggerating the facts a smidgen. Poetic licence shall we say, he was still mightily impressive though.

   And you’re quite right, I messed up on the scores at the AT & T. Wi started the third round on -12 and Dustin on -9. Not -11 and -8 as stated.

   Many thanks
   Steve
   

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