The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 25 March 2012 / 1

Steve looks forward to a stress-free evening, after his pre-event pick, Michael Hoey, wins the Trophee Hassan II

19:00 - March 25, 2012

Given Michael Hoey has already assured a very good week, thanks to his comfortable three stroke victory in Morocco, I'm going to enjoy watching the final round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational tonight with very little financial interest.

I'm not sure whether I'll be collecting or not on my free bet on Tiger Woods but it will make for fascinating viewing either way. Can he finish the job off? Will his nemesis of a few years back, Graeme McDowell, beat him again?

It does look to concern the front two but I've backed Ernie Els and Johnson Wagner now, at [14.0] and [55.0] respectfully. I have my doubts about Ernie getting the job done but it would be lovely to see it. And I couldn't work out why Wagner was so big, compared with Charles Howell III on the same score.

I'll be back tomorrow afternoon with my De-Brief.

14:25 - March 25, 2012

The final round of the Trophee Hassan II is in progress, live on Sky Sports three, and Damien McGrane has a two shot lead. He's a bit of a dodge in front usually and looks a decent lay at around [2.0] but given a couple of my pre-event picks, Michael Hoey and Hennie Otto have muscled their way into contention, I'm going to leave McGrane alone.

Another player getting in on the act is Jamie Donaldson. The Welshman's on fire, having played the first eight holes in eight under! He's just made a lengthy par save on the very tough 18th to shoot 28 for his first nine holes. Can he shoot the European Tour's first 59?

12:50 - March 24, 2012

The second round of the Trophee Hassan II is just finishing up and they should be able to follow that straight away with round three this afternoon. I would have thought that they should get the third round finished today to get back on schedule but I wouldn't be certain.

I've made a tiny play on Jose Manual Lara at [12.0] in-running. He's just two off Damien McGrane's halfway lead and he's a player I looked at before the off at considerably bigger odds. If I get further involved today I'll post an update later but I may well wait and assess the situation in detail at the end of play.

At the Arnold Palmer Invitational, things didn't quite go as smoothly as I'd hoped. My two pre-event picks, Bubba Watson and Sean O'Hair were disappointing - Bubba played well from tee-to-green but putted moderately and O'Hair had a complete disaster on the par five 6th, finding the water twice to make nine!

Tiger Woods has moved effortlessly into a tie for the lead alongside Charlie Wi but it's fair to say I didn't do brilliantly at getting him onside, as was the plan. With hindsight I should have just backed him before he started his second round at around [5.5] - a price I felt was more than fair anyway. Instead, I thought I'd try and be clever and get a bit bigger but it backfired.

When Graeme McDowell shot an impressive nine-under par 63 to tie the early round two lead with Jason Dufner on -9, I thought Tiger should have drifted more than he did. After all, he was about to start his second round six off the lead, which I thought was a big ask. He did drift slightly in-running when he pared the first three holes and that would have been the time to strike but I hesitated far too long and in the end I got him onside at an average of just [4.9].

I'm off out tonight, so I've made the decision to lay back enough of my Tiger bet to ensure a profitable tournament and a stress-free evening. I didn't want to leave myself exposed too highly, only to return tonight and see he's put in a poor third round - an eventuality that's far from unlikely...

I fancy today is going to be one of biggest days of Tiger's comeback to date. It's one thing winning his own event, as he did back in December, thanks to a late rally to gazump Zach Johnson, but hitting the front here and then powering home really would represent a return of the old Tiger. And I'm not entirely convinced we'll see that.

Besides that win in the Chevron World Challenge, there have been a number of occasions that he's been in with a chance of victory over the last four or five months and he's been very poor.

His worst in-contention effort of them all came Down Under in November, when after leading the Australian Open at halfway; he shot 75 in round three to trail by six with a round to go. A deficit he couldn't recover from. Then at the Dubai Desert Classic in February he was within one of the lead with a round to go but ended up being beat by seven! I wrote after his performance in Abu Dhabi a fortnight later that he may be worth taking on when in-contention and he subsequently flopped at the A T & T National behind Phil Mickelson. I'm not saying he's a monumental lay here but I don't want to go out for evening and find he's flunked it again when I get in.

15:10 - March 23, 2012

I thought I'd better post again, as I wouldn't want to put anyone away with my earlier comment about the draw bias in Morocco. Most surprisingly, the wind has dropped away to nothing and those on the course now are faring quite well.

14:10 - March 23, 2012

After yet another pants start by my picks at a European Tour event, I took the decision to go to the gym this morning and it was the best decision I've made so far with regards to the Trophee Hassan II. High winds suspended play all morning so I didn't miss a thing.

Best of my pre-event picks so far is Hennie Otto, who on -3, is four shots off the early pace set by Damien McGrane. It looked as though he was going to be in a much better place at one point though. With a hole to play his score read -6 but he made double-bogey on the 18th and had one of his earlier birdies changed to a par. An error on the European Tour website's leaderboard! Whatever next? I am, of course, being sarcastic. No doubt, next will be yet more scoring errors. I can't stress enough how careful you have to be when trading in-running on the European Tour, score changes are commonplace on their website.

To make matters worse with my picks, I'd written in my preview that I may well back Alex Noren if he continued to drift. Unfortunately he did just that and I added him to my portfolio at [60.0]. He shot two over par. And I can't say I'm too chuffed to see last week's fancy, Alejandro Canizares, bang there a week late either!

It looks likely that those drawn early - late are going to have a huge advantage now. Play has just restarted and the afternoon starters of yesterday, who should have played this morning, are out there now battling what's still a strong breeze. Those that played yesterday morning and that should have been out there now, are not likely to see any action today. Instead they'll start round two in the morning, where they're almost certain to encounter easier conditions.

I'm going to wait and see how things develop in Morocco now and focus my attentions on the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where thankfully I fared a bit better on day one. It hasn't been without its frustrations though.

As I write, Bubba Watson, one of my two picks, has just missed a birdie putt from within four feet, and that's the third time he's missed from that distance already this week. That really doesn't bode well at all.

Watson and my only other pick, Sean O'Hair, both finished day one inside the top-10 after shooting three under par. Jason Dufner and Charlie Wi held the early lead after shooting three better. Tiger Woods equalled my guys' and with an afternoon start, I'll be keeping a very keen eye on him this evening. The [5.5] he trades at now looks better value than the [9.2] he started the week at but given he'll feature in tonight's live broadcast, it makes sense to wait and see how he's playing.

Trophee Hassan II Pre-Event Selections:
Rhys Davies @ [60.0]
Alex Noren @ [60.0]
Hennie Otto @ [70.0]
Julien Quesne @ [85.0]
Michael Hoey @ [85.0]
Eduardo De La Riva @ [130.0]

In-play Bet
Jose Manual Lara @ [12.0]


Arnold Palmer Invitational Pre-Event Selections:
Bubba Watson @ [32.0]
Sean O'Hair @ [95.0]

In-Play Bets
Backed Tiger Woods @ [4.9]
Layed Tiger Woods @ [2.34]
Ernie Els @ [14.0]
Johnson Wagner @ [55.0]

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1. Anonymous | 24 March 2012

   Yesterday you said you were going to wait until the TV coverage started before backing Woods. By that time he had already made four birdies and was trading much lower than what you backed him at. So did you change your mind?

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