The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 10 July 2010 / 1

Steve has a chance in Scotland, where his big-priced outsider, Darren Clarke, leads by three. In the States, it's all about the magic number.....

Wonders will never cease! Hard on the heels of an in-running success with David Horsey in Germany and a near miss in France with Martin Kaymer, I've managed to dig out the halfway leader in Scotland.

It's been a really tough year to date, my toughest since I've been playing the golf markets seriously, so it's a real fillip to get another 'live' one. Perhaps I know what I'm on about after all! On the flipside, there's always those old adages about throwing enough darts and blind pigs eventually finding truffles, so I'm not going to get too carried away, and besides, whether Darren Clarke, backed at a whopping [180.0], can convert remains to be seen.

For the first time in quite a while the weather forecast was actually right and the heavens opened on Loch Lomond, and it didn't seem to suit many of the 'names'. The first three in the betting, Phil Mickelson, Ernie Els and Martin Kaymer all missed the cut by a stroke and with the Open Championship coming up next week, I'd wager none of them are too disappointed.

The forecast is for yet more rain today and that should suit my man, who leads Edoardo Molinari by three strokes, Peter Hedblom and Bradley Dredge by four, and Edoardo's brother Francesco, by five. With tricky conditions again it's hard to envisage many low scores and if Dazzler can post par or better I'd expect him to still be leading with a round to go.

Given today's forecast, and the fact that I haven't had too large a wager on Clarke, I'm going to hang on for now before laying any back. It may be the wrong choice but if it is I can live with it. I'll look to trade if he gets below around [2.5] early on today and I'll definitely look to lay some back at some point, Clarke is more than capable of an implosion! In an ideal world he'll get to odds on before Sunday, when the weather is due to improve, and if it does, look out - the winner could come from almost anywhere. This event has produced a couple of off the pace winners recently - back in 2006, Johan Edfors won from six shots back with a round to go, and two years prior to that, Thomas Levet overcame a seven shot deficit!

I've had a few in-running plays but all to no avail. I backed Simon Dyson during round one but he's missed the cut! And wagers after round one on David Horsey at [75.0] and Jeev Milkha Singh at [50.0] look hopeless, as does my in-running play, during round two, on Gregory Bourdy at [100.0]. So it looks highly likely that it's all up to Mr Clarke.

In the States, history was made at the John Deere classic on Thursday, when the likeable Paul Goydos became just the fourth player in history to shoot 59 in a PGA Tour event. Praise for Goydos, nicknamed Mr Sunshine on account of his happy disposition, was understandably plentiful but when Steve Stricker shot 60 in the afternoon, the achievement was somewhat diminished. In benign conditions Deere Run is little more than a pitch and putt course for these guys. That said, all of my picks struggled! The best of them is Zach Johnson but he's absolutely miles back and has no chance.

Stricker picked up yesterday where he had left off on Thursday and playing the back nine first he streaked away, making birdies at will. After 11 holes he'd gotten to five under par and he'd been matched at as short as [1.69]. I felt the market had swung too far in favour of Stricker and I had a very small play on Goydos at [7.0]. It was good timing, Stricker made a run of pars, birdied the eighth but then missed from inside three feet for par on the ninth.

Even with Stricker's shaky finish, Goydos was still four shots behind by the time he started his second round but he soon caught the defending champ and even passed him, but once he did the trouble started....

Having also played the back nine first, Goydos held a one-shot lead after 12 holes and he traded at a low of [2.74], but then the breaks went on. His first poor looking putt saw his birdie attempt slide by from five feet on the fourth and it seemed to completely derail him. He then missed a par putt from just two feet on the fifth and after a couple of steadying pars, a three foot par putt on the eighth! The skids were very much on. With hindsight, I should have layed him back but I didn't and now I'm just going to let it roll and hope he wins. Wishful thinking maybe, but it would be fitting after Thursday's 59.

I also backed George McNeil at [44.0], after he'd played 11 holes and just birdied the second hole. He picked up another shot on the way in, before ending the day on 11 under par, five back from Stricker, so he's not without a chance.

As usual, I'll be back on Monday with my tournament De-Brief.

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1. Mike Norman | 10 July 2010

   Really hope DC can hold on for you Steve. You won't find a nice man in the world of sport than DC and a win will be tremendous for the game, and for you of course so good luck.

   Thankfully there aren't any massive names immediately behind him, in fact, there aren't any big names left in (they all missed the cut). Good luck mate.

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