The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 05 April 2010 /

The Punter suffers yet more frustration as Graham DeLaet, backed at a humongous [600.00], misses out on a place in the play-off in Texas by a solitary shot....

Anthony Kim moves on to Augusta with the fillip of his first title in a couple of years, after he edged out Vaughan Taylor in a play-off to win the Shell Houston Open, thanks in part to a pathetic par putt attempt by Taylor on the first play-off hole.

My bets

It's now fair to say I'm on a poor run. After a decent enough start to 2010 Lady Luck seems to have well and truly deserted me.

Graham DeLaet, backed at [600.00], was by far the best of my original picks this week but in finishing just one shot shy of the play-off, in a tie for third alongside Charl Schwartzel; he became yet another frustrating huge priced near miss. Although he lost by the narrowest margin possible, he never really looked to have a chance of winning, and as a result he never traded below [18.0], so although he came mighty close, I didn't get anything out of the bet.

I've now had a pre-event pick at [50.0] or bigger finish in the top three, in each and every week stretching right back to February! In fact, DeLaet became my fifth triple-figure priced player to finish in the top three in as many weeks. Surely I'll bag a biggy soon....

Richard Finch - tied second at [140.00], KJ Choi - second at [50.0], Matt Kuchar - tied third at [150.00], Kiradech Aphibarnrat - tied third at [170.00], and Rickie Fowler, -second at [100.00].

In addition to my five failures from the get go, my three in-running picks all proved fruitless too. Frank Lickliter missed the cut, Matt Kuchar was never really in it after I'd backed him and Bryce Molder suffered a last day collapse.

Molder held every chance with a round to go, starting the day tied for the lead with eventual winner Kim but the tone was set on the third when he found water off the tee and he struggled all day after that, eventually shooting a two over par 74, dropping down to a tie for eighth.

Player to Watch

Ben Curtis doesn't usually get going this early in the year, so his performances over the last two weeks have been very encouraging. He'll probably struggle at Augusta next week on a course that's just too long for him, but he may be worth following after that.

Player to Swerve

Padraig Harrington keeps putting himself in contention but he's played very poorly every time he has. He's given himself a chance in each of his last three events but has put up some woeful efforts in the mix and he remains one to take on or avoid on the weekend.

What have we learnt for next year?

Don't back Phil Mickelson. When interviewed after the event he said that for him, this wasn't an ideal course to prepare for Augusta. Stating that he has to use his driver all week to prepare for the following week, but that with all the water in play he knows he's going to put himself in trouble a lot, and he did... If he's in decent form he'll be plenty short enough next year, but he'll be worth swerving.

Whack it miles but keep out of the water and you'll give yourself a chance here. I picked out Graham DeLaet purely on his stats and an examination of the Driving Distance and Greens In Regulations lists may well be a wise move again next year.

Thursday sees the eagerly awaited return of Tiger Woods at this year's first major - the US Masters. I've already written four pieces on the speciality markets and there are plenty of other articles in the US Masters section but I'll add to that, either late on Tuesday or early on Wednesday, when I'll post my preview, which will no doubt detail a big-priced outsider who will finish agonisingly close, thus edging me, ever so slowly, ever closer to insanity!

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