The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 12 July 2010 /

Dazzler comes up short in Scotland and there's more disappointment for Steve in the States as Stricker hangs on to win....

In a week of mixed weather, when all the big names struggled, Edoardo Molinari, enjoying the company of little brother Francesco in the final three-ball, held firm to win by three shots from a weary Darren Clarke. Whilst in the States, Paul Goydos couldn't quite reel in Steve Stricker.

My Bets

Having backed Darren Clarke at [180.0] before kick-off, I was obviously delighted to see him reach the halfway point with a three shot lead but I wasn't prepared to lay any back at the [3.3] he traded at before round three - the plan was to lay some off at around [2.5] and then some more when he went odds on. Half of the plan worked.

I layed Clarke on Saturday at [2.66] and again yesterday at [2.2] so it was a profitable tournament, but I still feel a little aggrieved that he didn't trade odds on. His third round 67 was a tremendous effort but it was totally eclipsed by Edoardo Molinari's incredible 63, which saw him go from three behind to one in front.

I thought I'd had a result with the weather when I saw the early scoring yesterday; birdies were rare so I assumed horrid conditions, which I felt would favour Clarke. Fortunately the market agreed and after both players had bogeyed the second I thought it prudent to lay some more off at [2.2]. It was a good decision as the tournament was lost on the third hole.

Clarke's approach shot to the par five 3rd found the green but it didn't stay there, agonisingly it rolled down into the adjacent water. Had Clarke had the benefit of watching Peter Hedblom fail miserably to recover from the very same spot, ten minutes earlier, he may not have even tried to play it, but he hadn't, and unfortunately he made just as much of a mess of it as the Swede. Both players tried in vain to extricate their balls from the water and both carded double bogey sevens. Molinari birdied the hole, the gap was four and that was effectively that. There's was no way back for Dazzler.

With no pre-event picks in contention at the John Deere Classic, I'd had a very small play on Paul Goydos at [7.0] during round two. He'd started the third round just a shot behind Steve Stricker but a back nine spurt from his rival left him six behind with a round to go.

After birdies at the first two holes, Stricker was a bit flat for the rest of his final round yesterday but he always had enough in hand - eventually holding off my man by two strokes.

It's not golf I know, but I bet you can't guess who I'd backed to win the World Cup at [9.0]. I'll give you a clue they wear orange shirts....

So I entered the weekend with a fair chance in both golf tournaments and in the footie, and although I feel a bit miffed I didn't collect on any of them, it has to be said; there's no point moaning, the winners of all three events were the just ones, so thank heavens for the ability to trade. Without the lay-backs on Clarke it would have been a miserable weekend.

Players to watch

I was really impressed with Alvaro Quiros' effort this week. In the foul conditions, many of the games big stars lost their way and I would have imagined Quiros just the type of player to do just that, but he didn't. He stuck at it all week, finishing in a tie for 12th and that came a week after a triple-bogey at the last hole in France disguised a decent performance there too. He's in very fair form and might just contend at St Andrews next week. After Miguel Angel Jimenez's success last week and the World Cup win last night, it's fair to say the Spanish are on a roll, could Alvaro keep it going?

Trevor Immelman caught my eye too. He played some solid stuff - his first round of 71 was followed by three rounds of 70, and it was nice to see him show some form again after injury.

What have we leant for next year?

Edoardo Molinari stamped his authority on the event on Saturday afternoon when he birdied four of the last five holes and that was a great little run because it's a hard finish at Loch Lomond. The drivable par four 14th hole is a real birdie opportunity but the last four holes are all tough, particularly the 16th and 18th. If you're betting in-running and your selection is in front with four to play it may pay to take some profit early.

Once again, accurate iron-play was the key at Loch Lomond, with Molinari ranked 2nd for GIR (Greens In Regulation) and five of the first six home ranked in the top-ten for that stat.

It's the big one next week - the Open Championship, so I'll spend the next few days looking for value in some of the specials markets and I'll post my findings throughout the week, as well as a full preview of the event on Wednesday.

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