The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 17 January 2012 /

Our man takes a good look at this week's US PGA Tour event and comes up with a monster-priced pick...

Tournament
Formally the Bob Hope Classic, the Humana Challenge has undergone a few changes this year. It has been reduced from five days to four and from four courses to three. Unfortunately, it's still a pro-am.

Venue
La Quinta, California

Course Details
PGA West (Palmer Course), par 72, 6,950 yards
PGA West (Nicklaus Course), par 72, 6,924 yards
La Quinta Country Club, par 72, 7,060 yards

The Palmer Course will be played twice by the field and will host the final round on Sunday.

TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, 8.00pm on Thursday and Friday and 9.00pm on Saturday and Sunday

Last Five Winners (all over 90 holes)
2011 - Jhonattan Vegas -27 (Playoff)
2010 - Bill Haas -30
2009 - Pat Perez -33
2008 - D J Trahan -26
2007 - Charley Hoffman -17 (Playoff)

Typical Winner
The event has changed considerably in recent years. It used to be an event very much suited to the mature and patient pro that could handle the long rounds and the no doubt dull conversation with the amateurs but in the last few years the young bombers have taken over and Par 5 Performance and Driving Distance have been the key stats to concentrate on.

Last year's playoff was contested by Jhonattan Vegas (ranked 3rd for DD), Bill Haas (10th for DD) and Gary Woodland (1st for DD) - two fearless rookies and the 2010 champ, who's no slouch off the tee either.

There may well be a few twists and turns on Sunday. In each of the last five years at least one player has traded at odds on and failed to get the job done.

Market Leaders
Matt Kuchar has shown an aptitude for the venue and perhaps should have won two years ago. Obvious chance but far too short for someone who tries his best to find a way to get beat.

Phil Mickelson is a duel event winner, a desert golf specialist and I can certainly see why Paul Krishnamurty fancies his chances but I'm going to wait and see how he starts off first. I'm a bit concerned about his putting, which wasn't great at times last year, but should he start well I'll probably get him onside.

Haas at [22.0] looks perfectly fair and certainly better value than the [27.0] about Charles Howell III, who just doesn't win. And although Dustin Johnson and Martin Laird look about right price wise, neither floats my boat.

Selections
Just two picks for me from the start. I'll look to get a few more onside in-running and I'll look to trade on the final day when I hope to see a congested leaderboard with lots of changing prices.

First up is Scott Piercy, who looks a fair price at [110.0]. He showed up for a while at last week's Sony Open Hawaii, an event that wouldn't have been made for him, and I thought then I'd back him here, if I could get three-figures.

He ranked seventh for driving Distance last year and has shown an aptitude for desert golf on many an occasion. The Las Vegas resident broke his duck at last year's Reno Tahoe Open and after a couple of pipe-openers in Hawaii, I fancy he could well figure in a test that looks far more his cup of tea.

Nationwide Tour graduate, Jason Kokrak, has wasted no time getting to the top of the PGA Tour Driving Distance stats but it's no surprise. This monster hitter topped the Nationwide DD stats last year too but he's not just a big-bomber. He won two of his last six events last year and finished tied fifth at the year's final event, the Nationwide Tour Championship.

A big hitting Nationwide Tour graduate could be just the ticket when you consider that two of them fought out last year's playoff.

A number of players came close to making the portfolio but were just left out on account of price. Anthony Kim went to college at La Quinta and loves a birdie-fest, and the in-form Harrison Frazar and Michael Thompson were both carefully considered too.

Humana Challenge Selections:
Scott Piercy @ [110.0]
Jason Kokrak @ [300.0]

I'll be back on Friday with my In-Play Blog.

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