US Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 18 June 2011 /

With Rory well clear, Paul Krishnamurty casts his eye over the Winner w/o McIlroy market...

We may all be golf fans, but yesterday's events at Congressional served to illustrate the very different perspectives between patriots, pundits and punters. Those in the first two groups seem united in their joy at Rory McIlroy's sensational, record-breaking performance, which leaves the Irishman six shots clear at halfway, nine ahead of third place. However, while we punters might have wished Rory well before the week started, we are now generally united in hoping he starts dropping shots, preferably several and soon. Indeed, Rory's double-bogey on his final hole yesterday came as quite a relief, keeping the event alive as a betting heat.

These major weekends are the highlights of the golf punting year, so it would be a terrible shame to see this great event reduced to a one-man show. That used to happen quite regularly when Tiger Woods was at his peak, but we've been spoilt in recent years, particularly in the US Open. For my money, Rory needs to shoot par or better to take a virtually unassailable lead into Sunday, which doesn't seem like a stiff target given the way he's played so far. Of course, many will remember his catastrophic collapse at Augusta and hit the lay button, but that doesn't interest me yet. I need to see that there's somebody close enough to put McIlroy under some pressure first, and that isn't the case yet.

So what do for a bet today? 2-balls will certainly be an option when announced later, and it may be a good time to start playing the 'Without McIlroy' market. Take out Rory and we'd have a typically thrilling weekend in store. Y E Yang leads the rest by three, but only four shots separate the next 41 players. As a former PGA champion, Yang is respected but the competition is fierce. I'm opening my book with three trades from off the pace.

Firstly as argued on Thursday, Charl Schwartzel remains under-estimated since his Masters triumph. Given that pedigree, odds of [34.0] from two shots behind third place is huge. With top-20 finishes in the last four majors, he clearly enjoys these gruelling weekends. Considering he's only two shots off third place overall, Schwartzel also may be worth a small interest to win the event at [250.0].

On the same level par total, John Senden may lack majors pedigree, but his ultra-reliable long-game should theoretically be ideal for a US Open. This is only Senden's third crack at this major, and after two missed cuts he appears to have learnt a few lessons. If as expected, conditions get harder over the weekend, this consistent Aussie could be in his element, running up pars while others fall away. That was the case when producing his previous best effort in a major, finishing fourth behind Tiger Woods in the 2007 PGA at Southern Hills.

Finally another Aussie. Jason Day was runner-up on his Masters debut, and from +1 at halfway, is no forlorn hope to repeat the achievement in his first US Open. Day has been making a habit of brilliant late rattles, coming from well behind to finish sixth at Sawgrass, and fifth last time out in the Byron Nelson. Improving all the time, and with four top-tens in his last five starts, expect to see Day there or thereabouts again over the weekend, at least for the minor honours.

Outright

0.5u Charl Schwartzel @ [240.0]

Betting without Rory McIlroy

2u Charl Schwartzel @ [36.0]
1u John Senden @ [65.0]
1u Jason Day @ [65.0]

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