Ryder Cup Betting / Paul Krishnamurty / 15 September 2008 /

Paul Krishnamurty looks at Ryder Cup history and offers tips on how to find value at Valhalla.

1) Ignore strokeplay form, and back outsiders

Matchplay is the greatest leveller in golf, especially when played over 18 holes, making it essential to treat strokeplay form with caution. The clearest evidence of this comes in the form of the numerous shocks seen every year at the WGC Matchplay, and the unpickable winners that tournament has produced.

Why is matchplay such a leveller? Consider the European Tour stroke average, arguably the stat that provides the best guide to a player's current 'ranking'. Robert Karlsson heads the way on 70.04, a full two shots clear per round of the player in 137th place, Louis Oosthuisen. If they played one another, Karlsson would start a prohibitively priced favourite.

However, that is over a whole season, not just one round. It reflects the differentials in each player's consistency, rather than their ability to hit one good round. Over 18 holes, long-term form is largely irrelevant, and the player who is hotter on that specific day will more than likely win. So in my hypothetical match, I'd be a layer of Karlsson at short-odds, in the hope that Oosthuisen got off to a flyer and changed the dynamics of the match.

The scoring system is another leveller. Whereas in strokeplay, a week's good work can be completely ruined with a couple of disaster holes, it matters less in this format because only one hole can be lost at a time. Theoretically, it's possible to play rubbish on half of the holes and still win the match.

Recent Ryder Cup singles have had their share of shocks, most memorably Constantino Rocca's trouncing of Tiger Woods at Valderrama, and Phil Price defying odds of [4.5] against Mickelson at The Belfry. Looking through the sides I doubt anybody will be that much of an outsider in Sunday's singles, but I will still be looking for upsets rather than bankers.

2) Back the side with the better team spirit, and the players who thrive in a team

Following the first golden rule has paid dividends in most Ryder Cups over the last couple of decades, because Europe has usually been the outsider. As Europeans drew blanks in the Majors while the likes of Woods and Mickelson swept all before them, oddsmakers over-reacted time after time. Never more so than 4 years ago at Oakland Hills, where the visitors started around [3.5]. Despite the hype, and US captain's Hal Sutton's supposedly all-star pairing of Woods and Mickelson, Team Europe humiliated their rivals with a record win.

It's widely accepted that the main factor behind these results was that Europe have mastered team spirit incomparably better than the individualistic Americans. The effect of this has been clearly visible in the performances of key players like Sergio Garcia and Tiger Woods. In strokeplay, when all alone with his thoughts, Sergio's career has been severely affected by his terrible short putting. But in Ryder Cup pairs, with a partner to help read the greens and several team members rooting for him nearby, Garcia has looked as good a putter as any. Compare his transformation to Woods, who has never looked happy, or even particularly motivated, by team golf.

History counts for nothing now though, and I'm sure US captain Paul Azinger has been working hard to emulate Europe's famed camaraderie in his camp. Who knows, perhaps the absence of superstar Woods will help the side to gel?

3) Back the front-runner in fourballs, lay the front runner in foursomes

Recent stats confirm a long-held impression that fourball matches are less volatile than foursomes. In 2004 and 2006, both sides traded at odds-on in half of the foursomes, as opposed to a quarter of the fourballs. And only twice have a pair come back to win a match from two shots behind - both in foursomes.

The reason for these trends are straightforward. More holes are won when there are only two balls in play, as one good or bad shot from either player will likely determine the hole. Whereas when playing 'better ball', more holes are likely to be tied.

4) Expect it to be close, and trade accordingly

The final golden rule has been broken in the last two Ryder Cups, but this year's very tight betting suggests normal service will be resumed. Prior to Oakland Hills, the previous eight Ryder Cups had all been close, with the teams separated by no more than one point in five of them. In all of them, both sides will have traded at odds-on at some stage in-running.

Therefore, it could make sense to lay the first team to hit [1.7] or below and hope for a turnaround to 'green up'. Equally, I like the look of the draw as trading value at [13.5]. If the contest is as close as expected, there's every chance this will go below [5.0] at some stage on Sunday night.

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