Ryder Cup Betting / Paul Krishnamurty / 21 September 2008 /

It's the final day at Valhalla with the score standing at 9-7 to the US. The players tee off at 17.03 this evening, Paul Krishnamurty runs through the odds on what will be an explosive night of golfing drama.

After a series of tight matches, Europe just edged honours of day two to set up what looks set to be the closest finish to a Ryder Cup this century. The visitors trail 7-9, needing seven of the remaining 12 points to retain the trophy. It's an identical scoreline to the last time Europe trailed going into the Sunday singles at Oak Hill in 1995, and it didn't stop them then. In fact, overturning final day leads was the norm in the 1990s, with the US similarly storming back in 1993 and most memorably 1999 from a far worse position than this.

At this stage, its too close to make a confident call. The draw must come into the equation, and at [12.0] probably represents the best trading value in the outright market. Yesterday's advice to lay the US at [1.53] has only very marginally moved in my direction, but its a trade I will hang on to in the hope that momentum flows Europe's way at some stage tonight and they too can be laid at odds-on.

Looking down the order of singles matches, it could work to Europe's favour that they have saved Lee Westwood, Padraig Harrington and Ian Poulter for the last three matches. If it's as close as expected, those three should be pretty reliable in the nerviest of atmospheres. Gaining early momentum will be pivotal, and we couldn't really ask for a more exciting opening match than Sergio Garcia v Anthony Kim. This is one of three fancies amongst the singles matches.


Anthony Kim @ [2.7] (vs Garcia)

The golfing lesson of 2008 is without doubt, 'Beware the injured golfer'. Tiger Woods and Padraig Harrington have both won majors having been written off on injury grounds, and only last week Robert Karlsson made a nonsense of speculation about his bad neck when running away with his comeback tournament.

So we really shouldn't read too much into Azinger's decision to rest Kim for last night's fourballs. Kim has been inspirational so far and at least an equal match for Garcia on this week's evidence. It must be said that Garcia has been rather disappointing this week, and his matchplay singles record is far from impressive in either this or the WGC Matchplay. I'm usually inclined to back the outsider in 18-hole matchplay, and [2.7] about Kim here didn't require a second look.


Justin Rose @ [2.7] (vs Mickelson)

Without doubt, Phil Mickelson has revelled in his senior status and produced some of the best golf this week. He hasn't been flawless though, and lost the plot for a spell yesterday in his foursomes match against Stenson/Wilson. Mickelson's record in matchplay singles is nothing out of the ordinary either, and so at the generous price of [2.7], I'm taking his opponent Justin Rose.

Rose has been one of the best Europeans on show this week, showing apparently no nerves whatsoever on his debut to claim two points out of three. It could help that he was rested last night, enabling him to start fresh whereas his opponent was involved in a high-pressure situation in last night's final game. These two met in the 2007 WGC Matchplay, with the Englishman running out a convincing winner.


Miguel-Angel Jiminez @ 3.0 (vs Furyk)

If Jiminez can win this, it would be a huge boost for European hopes. Furyk is one of the most experienced players on show, has won three of his previous five Ryder Cup singles and put in a memorable putting performance yesterday. He will be a tough nut to crack, but odds of [3.0] are an insult to Jiminez.

On their overall 2008 form, Jiminez should be Furyk's equal, so clearly the market is being driven by Furyk's stellar if ultimately unrewarded performance on the greens last night. But Jiminez played well enough in his own right yesterday and is no forlorn hope by any means.


Draw for Sunday's Ryder Cup singles

1703 Anthony Kim v Sergio Garcia

1714 Hunter Mahan v Paul Casey

1725 Justin Leonard v Robert Karlsson

1736 Phil Mickelson v Justin Rose

1747 Kenny Perry v Henrik Stenson

1758 Boo Weekley v Oliver Wilson

1809 JB Holmes v Soren Hansen

1820 Jim Furyk v Miguel Angel Jimenez

1831 Stewart Cink v Graeme McDowell

1842 Steve Stricker v Ian Poulter

1853 Ben Curtis v Lee Westwood

1904 Chad Campbell v Padraig Harrington

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