Ryder Cup Betting / Paul Krishnamurty / 19 September 2008 /

Nothing has happened so far to dent Paul Krishnamurty's confidence in Nick Faldo's men. He expects it to be business as usual for Europe on day one.

Though there has been a minor move towards Europe in the Ryder Cup betting, (in to [1.98] from [2.06] on Monday), the day one markets are still very tight. For instance, Europe are [2.02] to lead after the first day, with the US at [2.6] and the tie at [7.2]. Such odds reflect an understandable reluctance on the part of odds-makers to go too short about any favourite in a team matchplay contest, but all recent history books suggest that in this instance, they're plain wrong.

Over the last 20 years, Europe have completely dominated the US in both foursomes and fourballs. The aggregate tally in these first four rounds over the past 10 Ryder Cups shows Europe ahead by a crushing 92.5 - 67.5 margin. The US have won only nine of the last 40 matches in either pairs discipline, compared to Europe's 21. Europe have led after eight of 10 opening days in that period, including all of the last five.

Clearly laying the US at [2.6] on all of those previous opening days would have yielded a substantial profit over the years. So considering that Europe were less fancied in all of those previous contests, this does not seem like the right time to abandon a winning formula. Without repeating in detail the view I expressed earlier in the week, Europe's side look stronger in every department and until the US prove they can gel as a team, they won't be carrying my money.

Nothing has happened so far to dent my confidence in Europe's chances this week. The media hordes, desperate for a story, have tried to play up the significance of Nick Faldo's error in allowing a camera to get a glimpse of his fourball plans. No doubt if Europe lose the captain will come in for some stick, but I can't really see why such tittle-tattle should affect anyone's golf.

Its not even as if the groups are a surprise, or were likely to prompt a dramatic, pivotal change in tactics from his opposite number. Given their fine previous record together, Lee Westwood and Sergio Garcia were always likely to be a partnership, and finding a pair to beat them was always going to give Paul Azinger a headache.

The stats in their match against Jim Furyk and Kenny Perry are extremely one-sided, and many will see Europe as a banker at [1.88].

Westwood and Garcia are by far the two most prolific points scorers on either side, winning 25 pairs matches between them and four of their six matches together. In stark contrast, Furyk has a poor return of three wins from 15 and Perry has yet to win a Ryder Cup point of any description.

Nor was it any surprise to see old friends Justin Rose and Ian Poulter paired together, though their match against Stewart Cink and Chad Campbell looks much tighter. I'm loathe to express a strong opinion on that game, but I would certainly favour Henrik Stenson and Paul Casey against Hunter Mahan and Justin Leonard. With little in the way of penal rough at Valhalla, the Europeans should enjoy a significant driving distance advantage in this match.

America's strongest chance of an early point lies in the opening match, where all-star opening pairing Phil Mickelson and Antony Kim take on Padraig Harrington and Robert Karlsson. As I've already said, I'm expecting big things of that American pairing so I would marginally select them at [2.16] in what should be a high quality encounter.

Generally speaking though, I'd much rather take a bet across the whole day or the whole tournament than piling in heavily on favourites in these individual matches. 18-hole matchplay is a notoriously unreliable medium, with outsiders usually paying their way. Alternatively, the formbook trends tend to be borne out when measured over four or eight matches, as those 20-year stats show.

In short then, my main bet today is laying the US to be 'Day 1 Leader', and also two bets in the Day 1 Correct Score market on Europe to win 5.5 - 2.5 and 6 - 2 at odds of [10.0] and [14.5] respectively. I've also listed below my predictions for the opening foursomes.

Selections

Lay US to be Day 1 Leader @ 2.6

Day 1 Correct Score

Europe to lead 5.5 - 2.5 at [10.0]
Europe to lead 6 - 2 at [14.5]

Foursomes Predictions

Mickelson/Kim to beat Harrington/Karlsson
Rose/Poulter v Cink/Campbell - Match halved
Stenson/Casey to beat Mahan/Leonard
Westwood/Garcia to beat Perry/Furyk

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