Ryder Cup Betting Zone / The Betfair Contrarian / 11 September 2008 /

Our devil's advocate on why the big hitting Spaniard won't lead the European's charge.

The Contrarian has made a lot of money betting on golf over the years, not least on the Ryder Cup, when less cool-headed punters so often let their primitive patriotic (or anti-American) instincts get the better of them. Sergio Garcia, with a win percentage of 75%, has the best Ryder Cup record of all time, amongst players that have contested 15 or more matches, but the Contrarian believes this will be the year when he comes unstuck. Here's why he won't be one of Europe's top three performers:

He's still a nearly man

Despite his great Ryder Cup record, Garcia has a terrible reputation for coming close at major events but never finishing the job. The Spaniard has finished in the top ten at 14 different majors without ever winning one. The most gutting of those near misses came at last year's Open Championship, when he had a comfortable lead through the first three days only to allow Padraig Harrington to level on the final day and crush him in a play-off. No one has let more slip through his fingers.

And that weakness translates to the Ryder Cup too

While Garcia has an enviable Ryder Cup record, it should be even better. In 2006, after winning his first four matches, victory in his singles match against Stewart Cink would have made him the first player ever to complete a clean sweep of five points from five matches. Cink hadn't won any of his first four matches outright, claiming three halves and a loss, but inevitably, with the stage set for Garcia to make Ryder Cup history, he lost to the American.

Arnold Palmer showed how hard it is to sustain dominance

After Garcia, of all the golfers to have played 15 or more matches at the Ryder Cup, Arnold Palmer has the second best win percentage, at 71.9%. By the time Garcia retires, however, don't be surprised if Palmer has reclaimed the best win percentage, because the more Ryder Cups you play in, the more likely your record is to diminish. Palmer's win record after four Ryder Cups was 78.6% before it dropped off later in his career. At his last Ryder Cup in 1973, Palmer won just two of his five matches.

He's got a dodgy singles record

While Garcia's overall record at the Ryder Cup is exemplary, his record in the Sunday singles matches has always let him down. The Spaniard has played four singles, but has only won one, against Phil Mickelson (who himself has won just one of his last four) in 2004. Besides throwing away that chance to make history with defeat to Cink two years ago, he also lost in 2002 to David Toms, and in 1999 he was beaten by Jim Furyk, who had lost his previous two Ryder Cup matches that year.

There are at least three men with the potential to outperform Garcia

Padraig Harrington is on fire after his Open and PGA titles and was a strong performer when the Ryder Cup was last held in the USA four years ago, winning four of his five matches. Lee Westwood has gone undefeated at the last two Ryder Cups and is now three matches away from beating Palmer's 12-match unbeaten record. Paul Casey should also be a top performer. He was one of just seven players to make the cut at all four majors in 2007 and has followed up by repeating the feat this year. He was unbeaten in his four Ryder Cup matches in 2006, becoming the first player in Ryder Cup history to win a foursome match with a hole-in-one in the process.

His record in the majors in Ryder Cup years is normally much better.

On average, Sergio Garcia finishes in the top ten of two majors every Ryder Cup year, but this year he only managed it in one of the four - the PGA Championship.

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