Ryder Cup Betting: Insane qualifying process makes Europe a poor Ryder Cup bet

Ryder Cup Betting / Paul Krishnamurty / 01 July 2008 / 1

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Euro captain Faldo is handicapped by system that could leave him having to choose between Harrington, Garcia, Donald and Casey. Paul Krishnamurty explains all

With the race for Ryder Cup places hotting up, it's easy to sympathise with European captain Nick Faldo. OK, sympathise is probably not the right word, because let's face it most golf fans would walk to Valhalla for the job, but it must be awkward combining that role with his job as a Setanta commentator. It can't have been an easy job finding the right words last night as Faldo watched a prime contender to make the team, Daniel Chopra, turn in one of the worst final rounds by a leader in recent times.

Bearing in mind the events in France earlier that day, Chopra couldn't have picked a worse moment to fail in front of the boss. After months of misery, Europe's talisman Colin Montgomerie finally showed he could still be a force with by claiming second spot in France. Monty has certainly put his name back into the picture, but how much good it will do his qualification chances remains to be seen. Because his captain, handicapped by a bizarre system that restricts him to two wild-cards compared to his US counterpart's four, faces the mother of all selection headaches.

Consider the list of stars currently outside the qualifying spots. Besides Monty, six members of the last two record-breaking European sides are struggling - Padraig Harrington, Luke Donald, Paul Casey, Darren Clarke, Paul McGinley and David Howell. Surely at least a couple of those will make a big enough impact in the important summer events to qualify, but even then their advance could be at the expense of another crucial player. Sergio Garcia in particular is far from safe, which may have prompted this week's rare start this side of the Atlantic.

In contrast, US captain Paul Azinger has no such worries. With four picks and no pivotal players outside the qualification spots, he can opt for the four most in-form players at the end of August. Equally though, I'm sure Azinger wishes he could make his picks from an impressive like Faldo. The current eight spots include self-professed choker Woody Austin and there's nobody in the next 30 positions that could be described as a big-name.

The apparent lack of American stars has been a talking point for some time, so when Tiger Woods pulled out recently, market confidence in the hosts collapsed. For the first time in living memory, Europe are now favourites away from home at just [2.04], a price that strikes me as an over-reaction for a number of reasons.

Firstly, there is a very plausible argument that Tiger's absence might not turn out to be such a disaster. The theory goes that, without the superstar who plays every match and is the constant centre of attention, the team might gel. Certainly Europe proved time and again that the team matchplay format is the greatest leveller in golf, rendering the supposed superiority of individuals obsolete. And let's not forget, Tiger has rarely produced his best in the Ryder Cup and the US team can't fail to improve on their last two miserable performances.

Secondly, for once the US have a smart captain. Azinger was one of the grittiest US team members in the 1990s, and will ensure he maximises every ounce of home advantage in terms of the course set-up. It doesn't bode well that European players made little headway in recent USPGA Championships at Valhalla either. And thirdly there is this matter of Faldo's trouble in selecting his best side. If Woody Austin doesn't exactly strike fear into European hearts, then neither will Soren Hansen or Oliver Wilson cause Azinger any sleepless nights.

No doubt we could all come up with a wide array of permutations and much may change over the next few weeks, but for the record if the current lists are the same at the end of August my two wildcards would be Harrington and Donald.

For the US, its little more than a matter of pinsticking but I'd go for Chad Campbell, Hunter Mahan, Fred Couples and Chris Dimarco.

Who would you give the wildcards to, and just how costly will Tiger's absence really prove to be?

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Mike | 01 July 2008

You hit the nail right on the head Paul when you said, "Besides Monty, six members of the last two record-breaking European sides are struggling".

Monty apart, if they are struggling then most of them sholdn't be considered for a pick. Darren Clarke, Paul McGinley and David Howell are shadows of themselves of late, though Clarke has at least shown a few glimpses of form.

Harrington, Casey and Donald aren't playing any better than the above three and it's a little worrying for the European team.

Of the players you mention that are outside of the automatic spots at least we know that in Monty, Harrington and Clarke we have three players who have the ability to be transformed by the event that is the Ryder Cup.

As things stand now, if the picks had to be made today then it would be Monty and Clarke for me. DC will be lit up playing alongside his best friend Lee Westwood and just like two years ago he will re-discover his best form.

As for Monty, well how on earth can he be omitted? Talk of him not getting a pick seems ridiculous to me - he has been the outstanding Ryder Cup player (if not of all time) then in the last decade at least. The tournament brings out a different Monty to what we see week-in, week-out and his inspiration, experience, leadership etc all make him a must pick in my opinion. I'd much rather have a slightly below par Monty (with all his qualities) than an in form Scandanavian who has never played in the Ryder Cup previously.