Ryder Cup Betting / Paul Krishnamurty / 23 February 2010 /

The USA may have upset the odds at Valhalla last time out but Paul Krishnamurty is convinced that the Ryder Cup is only on loan. Here, he explains why the omens look good for a European triumph at Celtic Manor.

Well, what a magnificent weekend for English and, by extension, European golf. Back in the early days of the tournament, the WGC Accenture Matchplay was an event where Americans were usually expected to dominate. Only Darren Clarke's victory in 2000 interrupted a seven year winning streak for the home nation.

In contrast, this year's results demonstrated a marked shift in world golfing power. Not only were both finalists English, but Open champion Stewart Cink was the only American to reach the quarter-finals, where he was comprehensively defeated by Paul Casey.

It all bodes well for this year's Ryder Cup, for which Europe have now shortened to [1.77]. Four reasons make me think that the cup is only out on loan, after the USA upset the odds at Valhalla last time.

Firstly, while conditions at Valhalla favoured the US, home advantage could again be critical this time. The USA have only won away from home twice in the last 30 years, and not since 1993 during an era when to be fair, nobody would have questioned their dominance of world golf.

Secondly, as we saw at the weekend, Europeans generally remain better at matchplay. New WGC champ Ian Poulter is now the most successful European in the history of that event, and top-scored in the last Ryder Cup. Paul Casey has finished runner-up two years in succession, and has won the other World Matchplay title when it was held at Wentworth. Compare those records to the repeated matchplay failures of big US names such as Phil Mickelson or Jim Furyk.

Moreover, this is in singles, where we've been historically weaker. In the pairs formats, Lee Westwood and Sergio Garcia have particularly been second to nobody. The suspicion remains that Europe gel better as a team than their more individualistic opponents.

Thirdly, there's the Tiger factor. Generally, I'm loathe to pry into the great man's private affairs or play amateur psychologist. However, there's no doubt that the lingering doubts over his return to the game diminishes American hopes. Nobody is sure when he'll return, let alone whether he'll be the same player. Furthermore, its a safe bet that he becomes a target for crowd hecklers amidst the passion of the Ryder Cup.

Finally, and most significantly, Europe simply look stronger on paper. Listed below are the 12 players who would qualify if the teams were picked on the current world rankings. Even including Woods, the aggregate rankings totals are Europe 161, USA 195. Considering that these rankings are arguably skewed towards the US, as three of the four majors are played over there, that difference is stark and I suspect, historic.

The Ryder Cup market tends to be driven throughout the year by success in the biggest events, and I'm in no doubt that I'd rather back the European dozen for the main strokeplay titles.

Current Ryder Cup line-ups (based on world rankings)

Europe: Westwood, Poulter, Casey, Kaymer, McIlroy, Harrington, Stenson, Garcia, Karlsson, Fisher, Donald, Quiros

USA: Woods, Stricker, Mickelson, Furyk, Perry, Cink, O'Hair, Glover, Zach Johnson, Dustin Johnson, Kim, Watney.

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