Ryder Cup Betting: European strength-in-depth should ensure continued favouritism

Ryder Cup Betting / Paul Krishnamurty / 08 January 2008 / 3

" class="free_bet_btn" rel="external" onclick="javascript: pageTracker._trackPageview('/G4/inline-freebet');" target="_blank">

It's Ryder Cup year, so Paul Krishnamurty has made an early prediction at the Euro and US teams

With the possible exception of Tiger's tilt at the Grand Slam, the golfing highlight of 2008 will probably be the Ryder Cup at Valhalla in September. Coming off the back of consecutive nine-shot victories - or rather thrashings - Europe are favourites away from home for the first time in living memory. At [1.98], they're only marginally so, but beyond their recent dominance in that trophy those odds are also a reflection of a growing belief that there is now greater strength in depth throughout European golf.

The most recent evidence came on Sunday, when Sweden's Daniel Chopra landed his second PGA Tour win in three starts. Chopra is a decent player for sure, but he's never even come close to being considered for Ryder Cup inclusion. Similar comments apply to another Swedish multiple PGA Tour winner Carl Pettersson, and let's not forget that Justin Rose has yet to make his Ryder Cup debut. The competition is so strong nowadays that it will take some something special from brilliant up and comers like Rory Mcllroy and Martin Kaymer to even get close to qualification.

We've witnessed a dramatic turn of events in this regard. In virtually every Ryder Cup since the tournament's inception, certainly away from home, Europe have started underdogs. Even in the glory days of the late 1980s, European sides were always heavily reliant on a world-class core - Faldo, Ballesteros, Langer, Olazabal, Monty - while lacking strength in depth.

Nobody will forget the pivotal contributions of supposed 'journeymen' such as Phil Price or Phil Walton, but they started as massive outsiders in their respective singles matches. And without disrespect to any of the 'second string', it was hard to feel confident when our hopes lay with somebody like Constantino Rocca in a match against a regular Major contender like, say, Corey Pavin or Davis Love.

Nowadays the boot is on the other foot. The equivalent of those 'mismatches' is more likely to be a limited American like Brett Wetterich or JJ Henry against an emerging star and Major winner of the future like Henrik Stenson or Paul Casey. The Americans still have an extremely strong elite - Tiger, Mickelson, Furyk and Stricker fill the top-four in the rankings - but below them there is very little strength in depth. Their next best ranked player is Zach Johnson down in 15th place, and Stewart Cink is the only other player in the world's top-30.

All of this may only have minimal impact on the actual destination of the trophy. The point that Europe proved time and again is that in team matchplay, strokeplay rankings count for very little compared to camaraderie and nerve. The outright market will doubtless be affected by the fortunes of each set of individual players over the forthcoming months, but I suspect Europe's strong advantage has already been well factored in. I've been an enthusiastic European backer in recent years, but my reasoning has always been that they were over-priced as underdogs. While this is no longer the case, I do expect them to retain favouritism from now on and would find it hard to manufacture an argument against them.

For betting purposes over the next few months, I'm much more interested in the qualifying campaigns. The Betfair markets to qualify for either side are in their infancy with very little money matched yet. As the races develop and liquidity improves, I'll continue to monitor the situation and will no doubt return to this subject over the coming months. In the meantime though, I've listed my predictions for the two sides below. In each side I've gone for eight of the 12 qualifiers from 2006, though in both cases wildcards could be needed to retain some of the stalwarts.

EUROPE: Harrington, Rose, Garcia, Donald, Casey, Westwood, Stenson, Poulter, Fasth, Chopra. Wildcards - Darren Clarke, Colin Montgomerie.

USA: Woods, Mickelson, Stricker, Furyk, Johnson, Cink, Snedeker, Glover, O'Hair, Weekley. Wildcards - David Toms, Chris Dimarco.

What do you think? Has Paul called it right? Will any big names miss out? Should Europe really be favourites on American soil? Let us know by commenting below...

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

(3)

Joe | 08 January 2008

Hi Paul,

I'm not sure that Europe will win this one for a couple of reasons.

There's plenty of talk about camarederie in the European team but I think that's overplayed. A lot of these guys play in the US and all over the world now, so the old bonding that was made through collectively travelling and playing on the European Tour has gone.

Secondly, Faldo as captain seems a funny selection given he is such a divisive figure. He's already got up Monty's nose (not particularly hard I know), and there are plenty of others who don't like him. He managed to rile Tiger a few years back, perhaps Woods will take the extra motivation he so clearly needs for the Ryder from that?

Could be worth hoping to get matched at a slightly bigger price than the current 2.14 on the US I reckon...
Will | 08 January 2008

Hi Paul,

I can't really disagree with your predictions of the European Team. Carl Pettersson might have a chance if he regains the form that saw him win two times in the US.

I think you are way off the mark though with your US Team. How you can leave out player of Chad Campbell and Justin Leonard's calibre is beyond me?! Scott Verplank generally racks up enough points, without ever winning, to qualify or get a wild card at least. The flawed qualification system which saw the US slump to such a heavy defeat at K Club has been rejigged this time around. On that basis only wins and big performances in the majors will be good enough for qualification. It's too early in their relatively short careers to expect the likes of O'Hair, Weekley and Snedeker to make the team. One exception might well be Hunter Mahan who looks to be going places and he performed well in the Presidents Cup.

BTW - Azinger has four wildcard picks not two!

My US Team:

Woods, Mickelson, Furyk, Campbell, Stricker, Cink, Johnson, Leonard, Mahan

Wildcards: DiMarco, Toms, Verplank & Calcavecchia (a maverick selection but one who might just be the spark hitherto missing for the US team - John Daly).
Paul Krishnamurty | 08 January 2008

Hi Will - thanks for your comments.

More importantly, thanks for correcting me about the four US wildcard picks, which will obviously make a massive difference! It was for this reason that I excluded Leonard and Verplank, both of whom would now make likely captain's picks. Not so sure about Chad Campbell though, who seems to have become inconsistent and rather disappointing.

I wouldn't underestimate those US youngsters. I expect O'Hair, Glover and Snedeker to make big strides this year and win an event or perhaps even two. Equally, one great week at a Major or WGC could see their ranking position and general status change dramatically. With so few Americans in the top-30 now there's a big opportunity to break through.