Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 15 February 2011 /

No player splits golf fans more than Phil Mickelson and Paul Krishnamurty is up for opposing the world no.4 with a trio of big-hitting, longer priced opponents

With DA Points becoming the fifth straight triple-figure outsider to win in the States on Sunday, most golf punters have endured a tough beginning to 2011. At odds of [90.0], and that in a field restricted to 30 players, Kapalua champion Jonathan Byrd is the shortest priced winner on the PGA Tour schedule so far.

There is no need to panic, however, such is the nature of this wide-open sport. In direct contrast to the PGA Tour, the European equivalent produced three consecutive winning favourites in January, at decent enough prices to compensate for bad runs at other times. I'm a great believer in the law of averages when it comes to matters like this, and was not surprised to see that Race to Dubai sequence of favourites end with a shock winner in Qatar. One of the big names is going to bound to win in the States soon, and recent renewals of the Northern Trust Open suggest this could be the perfect time to take advantage.

Riviera is one of America's oldest courses, hosting a fixture since the 1920s. Most of the great champions have won here at least once, (although surprisingly not Tiger Woods). The last three renewals were won by Steve Stricker and Phil Mickelson (twice). Every winner since 2002 was shorter than [50.0], and during that period very few outsiders have even got into serious contention.

Given his course record and the fact we're overdue a winning favourite, there is an obvious temptation to back Mickelson at [9.0]. Before those two Riviera titles, he threw the 2006 event away in not untypical style. His long game at last looked close to his best last week, topping the green in regulation stats, so I can't really offer an argument against.

I won't be getting involved though, for purely stubborn reasons. Phil is one of those players who punters either love or hate, usually depending on our previous betting experiences with him. Many have made regular profits on him at this time of year, others by taking him on at short odds. Steven Rawlings and I represent the two sides of that divide, and while I'm sure Steve will justifiably be backing his man, I don't intend to jinx him by breaking one of my golden rules - never back Mickelson in single figures.

In any case, there are plenty of world-class alternatives with similarly impressive course records, at much bigger prices. Stricker is hugely respected as defending champion, having also finished runner-up and 11th previously. Luke Donald has five top-15s from his last six visits, including top-sixes in the last three. Like Mickelson, Stricker and Donald have thrived here thanks to their short-game brilliance.

The most significant recent trend, though, has seen a spate of massive-hitters run up impressive figures, as they can attack this old course with impunity. JB Holmes has made three straight top-sevens at Riviera. Andres Romero the last two top-fives. Rory Sabbatini has won and twice gone close. Mickelson is, of course, at his very best on layouts where he can get away with waywardness off the tee.

Rain-softened fairways could exaggerate the trend further, so I'm going for a trio of top-class bombers. Few players are as widely tipped for a big 2011 than Dustin Johnson, (the most popular pick in our Ten to Follow competition), and it was hard to get an attractive price about his first few events. A couple of failures have resulted in a drift out to [26.0], which is good enough for me given how much he's improved since finishing third and 10th in the last two years here.

Another bomber with form around Riviera is recent winner Bubba Watson, who registered two top-20s long before his marked recent improvement. Bubba's performance to win at Torrey Pines was easily the best of his career, and bodes well for the lucrative weeks ahead. Odds of [46.0], on such a suitable track, rather under-estimate the chance of this in-form player following up quickly.

California favourite Anthony Kim is another with the perfect profile. A replica of Mickelson - wayward, inspirational and potentially devastating if able to avoid serious penalties. Although Kim's Riviera record is inferior to the others shortlisted, he may be consequently over-priced at [48.0], especially as he did finish ninth on his 2007 course debut. Kim's three PGA Tour titles all came on championship courses - Congressional, Quail Hollow and Redstone.

Recommended Bets:
Dustin Johnson @ [26.0]
Bubba Watson @ [46.0]
Anthony Kim @ [48.0]

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