The Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 20 July 2008 /

Paul Krishnamurty on the delicately balanced betting on the final day of a windswept classic
Open

When my missus arrived home from work on Thursday, she took one look at the TV showing Greg Norman and asked why they were showing the Seniors during Open week.

She was actually joking, but if she hadn't known already what I was watching then that would have been a perfectly fair call. In fact the last couple of times I'd paid any interest in a round of Norman's would have been in recent British Seniors Opens. Who could possibly have predicted three days ago that 53-year-old Greg, a part-time golfer at best these days, would hold a two shot lead with just 18 holes to go?

Not many Betfarians judged by his market activity. [1000.0] at the start, it was only on the final holes this afternoon, when becoming apparent that he would at least share the overnight lead, that his price finally moved into single-figures. Even now he's trading around [4.6], a very fair price for anyone two shots ahead at this stage.

Normally I have little trouble removing emotion from betting, but no matter what the state of my book tomorrow evening, if Norman is in front down the stretch I'll find it hard not cheering him on. If he goes on to win his third Open title, it would be the ultimate sporting fairytale, and rich consolation for a golfing legend who has had much more than his fair share of final-day misery.

In any case, his current price looks far big to lay in current circumstances. Better weather is expected tomorrow, but its still hard to see the winning score being lower than +5. If that is the mark, Norman needs a 73. And lets face it, on this week's evidence he thoroughly deserves the lead. Today's 72 in some of the hardest conditions in Open history was nothing short of superb, bringing back memories of so many great Norman rounds on links courses.

Age won't be a barrier as he remains extremely fit, so if anything's going to undo the good work it will probably be his old achilles heel - bottle. No doubt he was severely unfortunate not to win more majors, but he also lost a lot of tournaments due to self-inflicted wounds. With that in mind, I probably will hit the lay button if he goes short odds-on late in the day, though I'm sure there will be a queue of others thinking the same.

Betting wise, Saturday was a miserable affair for me, with all my main outright trades effectively biting the dust. Looking ahead, given the nature of the course and leaderboard, big priced trades look the way to go. The top-3, (Norman, Padraig Harrington and KJ Choi), all look solid but there's bound to be one or two players who also get in amongst it by shooting low rounds from off the pace.

65 is certainly possible in decent conditions, perhaps 64, Therefore, if I'm right about the +5 winning total, any of the 25 players currently within eight of Norman could still win. It won't be easy for any of them to catch the likes of Harrington and Choi though, so only big prices interest me. My three picks are Jim Furyk, Graeme Storm and Justin Leonard at [50.0], [140.0] and [300.0] respectively.

Somebody is going to shoot a very low front-nine to transform their position, and these three look as likely as any. Furyk and Leonard in particular are known for their final day charges - indeed Leonard started Sunday five back when winning at Troon in 1997 and Sawgrass the following year. Thinking back to Carnoustie last year also lends some hope. As I recall, Andres Romero started seven back, trading at 200+ before going on to take the lead, hit short odds-on, only to blow it on the closing holes.

Storm also rates the best bet amongst the late 2-balls against Henrik Stenson at [2.6]. I've been really impressed with Storm's battling performance this week, especially considering he's had the worst of the weather. Birkdale really seems to suit his steady, greens in regulation type of game. In contrast, Stenson enjoyed a favourable draw regarding the weather, and prior to today's brilliant 70 had never cut the mustard on a links. He looks a vulnerable favourite here.

And while Alex Noren proved me wrong today with a battling round, tomorrow's opponent Antony Kim is vastly superior and should be solid value at [1.8]. From five shots back, this tremendously exciting US player could be winning his first Major earlier than anyone had expected. His outright odds of [22.0] are short enough though given the scale of the task, so let's go with the two-ball option instead.

Selections:

Jim Furyk @ [50.0]
Graeme Storm @ [140.0]
Justin Leonard @ [300.0]

Two-balls

Graeme Storm @ [2.6]
Antony Kim @ [1.8]

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