The Open / Romilly Evans / 12 July 2011 /

Romilly Evans take four outsiders to claim a surprise lead after the first round at Royal St George's

The trouble with trying to pick the first-round leader of a golf tournament (to a degree, it's the same with two and three-balls) is that none of the players involved is definitively trying to win this particular contest. You get the glory for winning the championship after 72 holes, not 18. You pick up a decent cheque for outperforming as many players as you can over four days, not just your playing partners on day one.

I'm not suggesting for a minute that a milestone stewards' inquiry should be held to protect punters from a race comprising 156 potential non-triers. Rather, I'd argue that you should stay away from the favourites in this market, who invariably offer poor value for what is a sprint within a marathon.

After all, the likes of Luke Donald and Lee Westwood typically view the opening round as a chance to get into contention, rather than top the leaderboard. Obviously, the higher up the ladder the better, but the big boys all know that timing their title run is crucial. So if Donald (a master at plotting his way round a course and eliminating the mistakes) finds him going low on Thursday but still a few back of the initial leaders, he'll likely take his foot off the gas in the name of consolidating his position over the closing holes. Pushing for the peak can wait until Sunday's summit.

That's all well and good if you've backed him outright, but incredibly infuriating if you're on him for first-round honours and he decides to play, say, the eminently reachable par five 14th as a conservative three-shotter. So far, this sounds like pretty straightforward stuff. The history of golf tournaments, particularly the majors, even bears this out. Even Tiger Woods in his pomp could prove a reluctant first-round leader.

But just when you've settled on a sound betting strategy, along comes Rory McIlroy to blow your bland theorising out of the water. "Wee Mac" is already a short-priced jolly for outright and first-round honours - after his US Open performance, you can't argue with that.

More surprisingly, though, he's already proven much more productive in the first-round stakes than in actually winning the event! Just take the basic stats: three worldwide wins in his entire career to date, but first-round leader in three of the last four majors. As demonstrated by his wire-to-wire romp at Congressional, McIlroy has no fear. Especially on Thursdays. So while I'd love to put you off the paltry quotes of around [12.5] to back, recent history suggests I may be opposing an irresistible force.

Last year's Open was an eloquent case in point, McIlroy bringing the Old Course to its knees with a blistering nine-under-par 63 to lead the field by two strokes. He has also been afforded the all-important early tee-time on Thursday morning. The 9am start previously reserved by the BBC for Tiger Woods instead being picked up by the kid tipped to assume his mantle as golf's primetime draw.

Nevertheless, the percentage call is for the short-priced top guns to lower their sights somewhat, leaving the way open for a fearless gunslinger who's prepared to run the risks and shoot the lights out in the first act. Playing alongside the Northern Irishman is his American equivalent, Rickie Fowler. Although Fowler has yet to make a comparable impression (he's still to win on Tour), he's only been a whisker shy several times and had already gone low in the majors' toughest tests. He retains all the shots, has been inspired by his peer's feats and will relax in the affable company of both McIlroy and Ernie Els. At [75.0] to back, he could well outshine their more storied names, at least in Round One.

The morning wave of players gets the chance to launch a birdie barrage when the course is at its most receptive. And greens don't get spiked when they're untouched. So Danny Willett should enjoy an advantage at [160.0] to back. First off at 6.30am, Willett is one of the European Tour's up-and-comers still searching for that elusive breakthrough. Consistency over four rounds has been his downfall to date, but this Englishman's Round One scoring average on some tough tracks has been a more bankable trait of character. A streaky player who hits it a mile and has links experience, Willett might just get it rolling and post a number many will struggle to match. As long as his playing partner, Jerry Kelly, doesn't put him off with any horror stories about the 11 he took at the first hole here in 2003.

Ryan Moore (13th in first-round scoring average in the US) is my second Statesider for the staking plan. He has a unique but repeating swing, and the requisite imagination to cope with the unique humps and bumps of this Kent classic. This former No.1 amateur is another in-form early-riser who should be ready to fire at [100.0] to back.

Like Moore, Kevin Na possesses the requisite low ball-flight to penetrate the blustery gusts. Possibly the best short-game exponent on Tour, Na has hinted at a return to form in recent events. A slightly later tee-time of 10.15am and fewer expectations could see him prosper away from the glare of the TV cameras. He's a mammoth [220.0] to back and completes my four against the field.

The weather appears set fair for Royal St George's. Thursday's forecast is for a cooler start, with temperatures picking up to 17 °C as the day wears on. The wind, so often pivotal in the draw for any Open, promises to rival the combined lung capacity of two harnessed toddlers. Yes, a mere 9mph is the current prediction for Day One, so the scores could be low even around this, one of the trickiest Open venues.

But even if the afternoon wave of golfers isn't inconvenienced by rising breezes, the greens will assuredly become more difficult to both read and hold later in the day. So stick with the system. The early bird catches the first-round lead.

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