The Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 10 July 2009 /

Turnberry is one of the world's finest links courses and will offer all golfers a test, but if the wind gets up this could be a beast, says Paul Krishnamurty.

Every year, golf form students face the same problem as we scrutinise the Open venue in detail, trying to work out how it will play and whom it will suit. But deep down we know that for all our research, we remain in the lap of the gods with regards to the weather and draw.

As with all links courses, Turnberry is a completely different animal in calm conditions than when its main defence, the coastal wind, is at its fiercest.

If it's calm next week in Ayrshire, we can expect a winning score of at least -15, but if the wind dominates proceedings that total could be ten or more shots higher. At this early stage, advance weather forecasts are hardly reliable, but right now accuweather forecast a wind-speed of around 25kph.

Let's hope they're right, from both a golfing and punting perspective. There is no greater spectacle than a classic links course at its toughest; when scoring par on any hole is an achievement and disaster lurks in every pot bunker. Nor are there many better in-running markets than golf when the weather is changing by the hour. Riches await those prepared to monitor which direction the wind is blowing, and therefore which holes are playing harder and which present birdie opportunities.

One only need recall the dramatic betting fluctuations in the past two Opens, both of which were won after Padraig Harrington made the most of tough conditions bound to favour those with an intimate knowledge of golf by the British seaside. In 2007, he started the final day six back before eventually rewarding patient punters who always felt Sergio Garcia's sizeable lead would be vulnerable on a perilous track like Carnoustie.

The Ailsa course at Turnberry has similar potential. We haven't seen this venue on the Open rota for 15 years, during which time technology has significantly changed the game. Numerous improvements have been made in the meantime to counter players' extra power off the tee, with the extra yardage amounting to 247 yards. Memories of 2006 venue Hoylake must have been paramount in the minds of the course architects; determined to avoid a similar scenario where the very longest hitters could take many of the fairway bunkers out of play.

Assuming they've got that part right, Turnberry looks an excellent Open venue. It is often said that short, links courses - and at 7,204 yards Turnberry certainly fits that description - are vulnerable to being overpowered by Tiger and co. That doesn't appear to be the case with Turnberry though, with its numerous doglegs, narrow fairways and 23 new bunkers pointing towards a test of driving accuracy and course management. If the rough is anywhere near as long as seen in previous Opens, severe penalties await anyone straying from the fairway.

History suggests the Turnberry champion will be one of the world's leading players. The course is most famous for the 'Dual in the Sun' of 1977, when Tom Watson and Jack Nicklaus pulled ten shots clear of the field in arguably the finest weekend in Open history. They were the best two players in the world at the time, and it showed. Likewise, when Greg Norman won his first major here in 1986, he was very much the man to beat. Indeed, that was the year when Norman famously led on the final day of each major, yet lost them all besides the Open.

The third and final Turnberry winner; Nick Price in 1994, was also the world's leading player that year. A look through that 1994 leaderboard offers a big clue of what to expect. Not only was the winner one of the favourites, but many of the top-10 were renowned links specialists, including Nick Faldo, Mark James, David Feherty and Brad Faxon.

Though he began the week as a virtual unknown, 1994 runner-up Jesper Parnevik also went on to make his name as a master of links golf, and really should have won an Open at some stage. At the time, his was a heartbreaking story, and had Betfair been invented back then many a fortune would have been won and lost.

When Jesper headed to the 18th tee, it seemed that a par would make his lead unassailable. Within minutes, Price had holed an enormous eagle putt, (and produced a memorable celebration, running around the 17th green), Parnevik bogeyed the final hole and the tournament was turned on its head.

In-running punters would do well to remember the potential for turnaround on those final two holes, and I'm sure I can speak on behalf of the legions of Betfarians in cheering on another dramatic finish. So long as it goes our way, of course!

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