The Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 19 July 2008 /

Paul Krishnamurty sees trouble ahead for Justin Rose in the third round at Royal Birkdale

Widely billed before a ball was struck as the most open major in living memory, things are only a little clearer at the halfway stage with everything set up for an exciting, dramatic weekend. A blistering finish from Korean star KJ Choi means we have a clear favourite, but with ten shots separating first and last and just seven between 4th and last, anyone who made the cut can still dream.

Paul Lawrie won the Open from ten back on the final day, so even the likes of Ernie Els, Lee Westwood and Colin Montgomerie could still theoretically resurrect their challenges. Tomorrow's weather forecast looks extremely rough, and we've seen already the carnage that can ensue on this course. Even though Choi is currently -1, its not completely out of the question that the winning score could be as high as +5 if the worst weather materialises.

Much depends on the leader's performance. If Choi can shoot par or one over tomorrow, I doubt there will be too many challengers left within striking distance on this brutal course.

Alternatively, if he hits 78 then the entire field are back in the hunt. That seems unlikely based on his front-running prowess on the PGA Tour, though he's never been in anything close to this situation in a major before. Whether he wins on Sunday or not, I can't see him capitulating and expect he'll trade shorter than the current [7.6], probably before starting his round tomorrow as the early starters struggle.

Though there are numerous quality players still bang in contention, his closest top-class rivals start three back. Today's headlines were made by the shock return to form of former Open champions Greg Norman and David Duval, but at [28.0] and [40.0] respectively, the market suggests their spell in contention will be short-lived. Both [1000.0] before the start, were either just to make the frame it would register as a huge upset.

Picking out one or two specific challengers from the rest of chasing pack is far from straightforward. Choi's closest market rivals are Jim Furyk and defending champion Padraig Harrington at around [13.0]. It's impossible to quibble with their claims, but its equally easy to construct a case for Graeme McDowell and Robert Allenby at [17.0] from the same halfway position. After two miserable trades yesterday on Goosen and Weir, (both of whom retain outside chances), I'm inclined to sit back at this stage and cheer on my existing tournament portfolio. Three of my four 'Find Me a 100 winner' selections are right in the hunt, Stephen Ames, Soren Hansen and Scott Verplank.

Renowned as a good wind player, Ames looks a strong contender in particular but only the right price at [28.0], rather like those other classy challengers. Hansen's price does still have some trading mileage at [70.0] though. He's only five back, and has been in contention several times recently. Many commentators have noted the similarities between Birkdale and Muirfield, the scene of Soren's best previous Open. These courses, particularly in bad weather, really emphasise his excellent ball-striking.

While I'm loathe to have any further sizeable outright bets at this stage, the two-balls could offer some rich pickings. Assuming the weather forecast is right, anyone struggling with their long game will be racking up huge scores. On the evidence of this season, and particularly today's round, Justin Rose could be in for a torrid time. His scrambling kept him alive today, just as it did when registering his one decent 2008 finish at the Memorial. However, a penal course like Birkdale will sort out the best long-games over four days, and Rose will need to massively improve his long game to survive.

Tomorrow's opponent, Retief Goosen, rates the bet of the day at [2.04], despite suffering himself today in the long game department. Goose has been very consistent in the majors over the years, particularly this one, largely due to his ability to bounce back from bad spells like this afternoon. His opening day 71 in the worst weather was an outstanding effort, in my view the best round of the week so far, and I suspect Goose's fortunes will be revived tomorrow in conditions that suit him better than most.

And again because of the tough conditions, at [1.77] Robert Allenby looks a very strong favourite against Alexander Noren. Allenby has long been overdue a good Major and I expect him to be a serious contender throughout the weekend. His greens in regulation stats have been outstanding lately, which should stand him in very good stead now that par golf is the order of the day. Noren is a decent prospect but a very different type of player, better suited to low scoring courses. Despite his good halfway position, I doubt he'll be a factor at any stage over the weekend.

SELECTIONS

Outright: Soren Hansen @ [70.0]

Two-Balls: Retief Goosen @ [2.04]; Robert Allenby @ [1.75]

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