The Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 15 July 2008 /

The Open is Big Phil's least favourite major so take him on with a couple of links-lovers, says Paul Krishnamurty

Since the mid-1990s, there's been one five-star investment available every July - backing Ernie Els to beat Phil Mickelson in a 72-hole match-bet at the Open. Ernie has beaten Phil in each of the 13 Opens they've both contested, and even allowing for doubts about the South African's own form, I very much doubt the trend will be bucked at Birkdale.

This match has been close just once, in 2004, the only time Mickelson has ever been competitive in this major and in the middle of the best season of his career. With conditions at Birkdale expected to be penal, I can't see this being the year for him to correct matters. Quite simply, he's never been a good links player nor a good traveller.

Of equal importance when it comes to match-betting is his attitude. Opposing Mickelson in 2-balls when he's not in contention has been a goldmine over the years, and I doubt Birkdale is a test he'll enjoy slugging it out in mid-division. On his previous trip to this Lancashire links he hit 85-79 over the weekend.

Contrast this with Ernie, who showed his class when clawing his way into the top-10 at Loch Lomond despite being clearly off his game. He has his work cut out to maintain that awesome Open record - six top-fives in the last eight years - but can be assured of fighting all the way for the best possible finish.

Mickelson's compatriot Jim Furyk also looks a nice bet at [2.26] in their match-bet for similar reasons. Furyk has very few peers in terms of consistency and attitude, and has made a fortune over the years battling on for top-10 finishes from miles off the pace. He was fourth here in 1998, and looks highly likely to go well again on this ideal layout.

Another attractive match bet, albeit between two lesser lights, is Fredrik Jacobsen to beat fellow Swede Niclas Fasth at [1.8]. Fasth looks 'gone' at the moment, with a best of 59th place in his last seven events. Last week's missed cut was a particularly poor show, having opened with a 67. In direct contrast, Jacobsen has produced his best golf of the year over the last few weeks, finishing second and ninth in PGA Tour events.

The 'Top-10 Finish' is rapidly becoming my favourite golf market. The beauty of it is that you can still be rewarded for all those near-misses that are inevitable when betting in a field of 156. Furthermore, its the perfect market to back those consistent players that rarely go on and win. Whereas temperament issues often affect their ability to get in amongst it on the final day, the fact they can be relied upon to relentlessly hit greens in regulation ensures regular top-10s or just outside.

Two classic cases in this regard are discussed further in my 'Find Me a 100 Winner' column - Nick O'Hern and Soren Hansen. Both have appalling win ratios considering their otherwise ultra-consistent stats, but have consistently rewarded backers in the top-10 market. I rate them excellent value once again this week at [12.0] and [9.2] respectively.

And though he's very much at the other end of the market, this analysis could equally apply to Sergio Garcia. Having blown his chance quite embarrassingly on the final day in the last two Opens, I just can't back him as favourite for the event despite an obvious chance. [2.1] about a top-10 finish looks pretty solid though.

Because of its unique characteristics, this of all majors always has its top-class specialists that finish high on the leaderboard each year. Besides Ernie Els, nobody has been more consistent in recent Opens than Garcia, making the top-10 and therefore landing this bet, in six of the last seven years. And with a greater emphasis on long-game consistency here than most, Birkdale should bring the best out of the links-loving Spaniard.

Advised Bets

Tournament Matchbets

Ernie Els to beat Phil Mickelson @ [1.8]
Jim Furyk to beat Phil Mickelson @ [2.2]
Fredrik Jacobsen to beat Niclas Fasth @ [1.8]

Top-10 Finish

Sergio Garcia @ [2.1]
Soren Hansen @ [9.2]
Nick O'Hern @ [12.0]

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: