The Open / Steven Rawlings / 16 July 2008 /

Steven Rawlings is very excited on the even of the Open but the formbook doesn't offer many clues about who to back.

All of a sudden it's the eve of the Open and I feel almost a little uneasy about my picks. It's a strange market without Tiger, very open but a lot of players look quite short in price and I can't say I've a really strong fancy for anyone.

Talk of penal rough and narrow fairways suggests driving accuracy will be a key factor this week. My three shortest priced picks aren't renowned for their tee shots, so that's my biggest concern.

An ability to play in the wind looks likely to be an essential requirement, while scrambling well around the small greens will also be vital. And as always the winner will need to have a great week with the putter.

Of the main protagonists Sergio Garcia is an understandable favourite but is surely too short given his propensity to give up a winning chance. I do genuinely fear him though, as his Open record is superb and he appears to have finally sorted out his putting. But one win in three years is scant reward for a player of his calibre.

I can also see Jim Furyk contending but feel he's also too short given his recent putting.

Some longer shots on the shortlist who didn't make their way to the final cut, Justin Leonard, Martin Kaymer, and Steve Stricker, are just a fraction too short and besides, you can't back them all.

So on to those who did make the final cut. Ernie Els is not in the greatest form, and his driving is a real concern, but his record is so good in this tournament that I simply can't leave him out of consideration. I backed him a month ago at [16.0].

Lefty's Open record is poor, his driving's shoddy and his overall play is not spectacular at present but the price is too big. I hope he either has a good week with the driver or decides to do a Tiger and leaves it in the bag. If he finds fairways, his accurate iron play and imagination around the greens will make him a big contender. He was backed a few weeks ago at [26.0] and fortunately he's come in as opposed to Els who's drifted alarmingly.

I'm not massively hot on Reteif Goosen's chances but [48.0] is a shade too big. He's not been touted anywhere and hasn't played an awful lot this year but has a decent enough record in this event. I also noted that he drove the ball considerably better than he usually does when last seen out in the BMW International Open. He has a habit of raising his game at the majors and could just sneak in under the radar.

The remaining picks are all triple figure prices and there's even one at [1000.0]. They've been chosen for a variety of reasons, play well in the wind, straight off the tee or have a decent event record.

I'm excited about tomorrow but I'm not particularly confident. Whatever happens I'll be posting daily updates each evening; detailing any movers or shakers in my Open portfolio.

All that's left now is to say good luck everyone and enjoy it. If it's half as good as Carnoustie or last months US Open we're all in for a treat.

Selections:

Ernie Els @ [16.0]
Phil Mickelson @ [26.0]
Retief Goosen @ [48.0]
Paul Casey @ [75.0]
Boo Weekley @ [100.0]
Stephen Ames @ [140.0]
Scott Verplank @ [220.0]
Bart Bryant @ [300.0]
Woody Austin @ [300.0]
Paul Goydos @ [740.0]
Simon Wakefield @ [1000.0]

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