The Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 06 July 2008 /

They've won five of eight at Birkdale, but this year only six US golfers trade at less than [100.0] in the Open Championship betting. Paul Krishnamurty assesses the chances of the Americans this year...

Historically, Birkdale has been a happy hunting ground for Americans. They've landed five of the eight previous Opens held here, and until a few months ago I'd been expecting a sixth. Tiger Woods finished third the last time it was held here, when very inexperienced in the finer arts of links golf. He lost by a single shot having squandered at least five just through inexperience, so I was expecting another rout on the way to a fourth title.

But now he's had to withdraw, I'm struggling to find serious candidates to maintain that fine US record. Its long been noted that many Americans, having spent so long on easy street earning fortunes playing target golf courses, just aren't prepared for the links golf experience. They're not well prepared for the different type of shot-making skills and hate the weather. At least nowadays, unlike the 1990s, with US representation in the upper echelons of the world rankings more sparse than ever, their top players all usually turn up.

Phil Mickelson fits that caricature better than anyone. Until somehow managing to fall over the line in Hong Kong last year, Mickelson hadn't won outside the States since the low-grade Perrier Open in 1993. For a player with such a fine record in the other majors, Phil's Open record is an embarrassment. He's only made the top-20 twice, and the only time he ever got close to contention was at Troon in 2004. Notably, both those decent Opens came in years when there was virtually no wind. When it blew at Birkdale in 1998, Mickelson shot 85-78 over the weekend.

The type of American to have prospered over here in recent years has actually often been the far less famous, flamboyant type. The two great Open upsets this century came from Ben Curtis and Todd Hamilton. Both were totally unconsidered beforehand, yet held their place on the leaderboard by steadily working their way around tough golf courses, relentlessly hitting fairways and greens. Birkdale in 1998 was a similar story, with three of the Americans that filled the top-4 places successfully adopting a similar strategy.

The 1-2 from that year, Mark O'Meara and Brian Watts, are now a veteran and retired respectively, and with Tiger out the only hope from that quartet lies with Jim Furyk. That was one of his first times he'd ever held a serious chance in a major, and though he didn't bottle it I'm in no doubt Furyk is a better player now whose experience would enable him to feel more comfortable in that situation.

He's already won a US Open, and probably deserves a second major after consistently racking up high finishes in the biggest events. All of this had made Furyk my long-term fancy for Birkdale, but my enthusiasm is dampened by the fact he's been below his best this year. However, if Furyk shows any signs over the next fortnight of returning to form, I'll be all over those current odds of [38.0].

Incredibly, there are only three other Americans trading under [100.0], Stewart Cink, Hunter Mahan and Justin Leonard. Cink also got blown away here in 1998, but that came very early in his career. In the meantime he's improved as a links player and registered his best Open finish to date last year with sixth place. 2008 has probably been Cink's most consistent to date, and he landed an overdue win in the recent Travelers Championship. Having hinted in more than one recent major that he was ready for the big breakthrough, Cink is a very fair bet at [48.0].

Much hope will be invested in the emerging generation, headed by recent dual winner Antony Kim and Hunter Mahan. As far as the future is concerned, the sky's the limit for [60.0] chance Kim, but he will surely be too inexperienced to challenge on what will be his Open debut. Having enjoyed three decent Opens already and finished as top American last year, Mahan certainly warrants consideration at [70.0]. However, he has yet to experience a links course in really bad weather and Birkdale's reputation in this area must be a concern.

As a former Open champion, Leonard is much more interesting at [75.0]. One of the great wind players, Leonard has enjoyed his best run in several years since winning towards the end of the 2007 season. Another recent victory in his native Texas has restored the reputation he carried after winning at Troon way back in 1997.

At 36 he should be at his golfing peak, and having been a regular winner or contender of top tournaments on the toughest golf courses during the earlier part of his career, it is by no means too late for Justin to win the Claret Jug again.

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