The Open / Bill Elliott / 16 July 2008 /

Bill Elliott believes Royal Birkdale is ready for a European Open winner and whoever it is will be a worthy champion.

Wind, wind, wind, it's all about the wind. And if it blows over the four days of this Open Championship on this fair but demanding track then the buzz word will be carnage. That's CARNAGE!

Peter Dawson, chief exec of the R&A - that august body of blazers who organise this week - is not a man given easily to sadism but I felt I detected a definite drip of salivation when he mentioned that winds are expected to run at around 25mph for much of this championship and that rain also is predicted. "It promises, " he said. "To be quite difficult."

This means two things: (a) the course is drying out much more than anyone anticipated given the near record amounts of rainfall endured in recent weeks and (b) this is now going to be much more of a 'linksy' course than could have been hoped. Whacking it and finding it and whacking it again usually works well in the modern game but it won't at this Open.

Already the list of genuine contenders has been slashed. Whoever this week's champ turns out to be, we now have an identikit picture. He will be patient, resourceful and a shotmaker rather than a loose cannon. The most obvious players who fall into these categories are Justin Rose, Lee Westwood, Miguel Angel Jimenez and Sergio Garcia.

Two Englishmen and two Spaniards. This is interesting because no European has ever won an Open at Birkdale but all that this weary stat really means is that one is due soon and I believe this is the week. Certainly each of these men is confident going into this Open. Rose was full of gung-ho confidence when he came in to speak to the world's media yesterday. I asked him if he believed in destiny and good karma - he finished fourth here 10 years ago as an amateur - and he grinned and said "Only this week and only at this course."

Westwood, reinforced by an reinvented short game, is as ready as he ever has been to contend properly at the game's top table; Jimenez remains a barrel-chested, cigar smoking, laid-back wonder while Garcia knows he is preset to win an Open sooner rather than later.

A year ago he slumped in despair when his seven foot putt to win at Carnoustie decided not to turn right at the hole and drop in - as several others had from the same place - but to roll straight on and pierce his heart. Afterwards he talked about malevolent outside forces and the demons that flew in his head.

All this anguish is now forgotten of course. Well, a bit forgotten anyway. In its place is the warm embrace of his victory two months ago in the Tournament Players' Championship, the so-called 'Fifth Major'. This was a win he needed. This was a week when he found his putting stroke again. Always a fragile stroke it remains dodgy but has improved from desperate to sustainable. Just.

Garcia's Open record in recent years is impressive. Top 10 always seems to be the least the young Spaniard may expect. And he knows that this Birkdale with its higher than usual demand on accuracy from tee to green is, in theory, made with his tee game in mind. "All I can say is that I am ready. I am playing well and I feel good. Look, no matter how hard you prepare this is one week when fate can conspire against you but while I do not k now if I will win, I can say that I expect to perform well. After that..." and he shrugged his shoulders.

There are some who say No Tiger, No Open. They are spectacularly wrong. Woods has lost more Opens than he has won, has struggled more often in this major than any of the others. Whoever wins this week will be a worthy champion, a man who has succeeded on a fantastic course.

With Tiger gone the glamour is diminished but there is still a lot of it about. And, you know what, if any American is to win this Open then may I offer you one name to ponder...Hunter Mahan. The 26 years old has played in three Championships to date, finishing 36th, 26th and, last year, sixth. I think I spot an upward curve here. Don't you?

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