Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 24 May 2011 /

There are years and years of course form to go on before making your bets for the BMW PGA Championship. Paul Krishnamurty outlines some of the trends to note ahead of this weekend's big one

Demonstrating loyalty to his home tour, Lee Westwood has called the BMW PGA Championship the 'Fifth Major'. Whether one agrees with that controversial description or not, this is undoubtedly the European Tour's most prestigious event, always guaranteed to attract an elite line-up. That is particularly the case this year thanks to the presence of all four current Major champions. Moreover, with decades of course from which to gain clues, it is an event where punters can take confident, informed opinions. Here are four useful lessons to learn from the tournament history.

Wentworth has become an outsiders' paradise
The profile of Wentworth winners has altered dramatically over the past decade. Up until 2000, when Colin Montgomerie landed his third straight title, PGA champions had been almost exclusively predictable. Prior to the Monty years, Faldo won four times, Langer thrice, Ballesteros and Woosnam twice each. Since then however, we've seen some of the unlikeliest winners of all time. Five of the last ten champions started well in excess of [100.0], and three were available at over [500.0]. Last year's winner Simon Khan started around those odds, and three of the other top-five finishers were also triple-figure prices.

Par-fives are the key to scoring, and usually produce a dramatic finish
In order to shoot low around this tough layout, players must make hay on the three reachable par-fives - the 4th, 17th and 18th. In-Play punters are best advised backing their picks before these holes, because there are plenty of potential disasters elsewhere. The par-threes are particularly tricky, especially if the wind gets up as forecast.

When betting in-running, the key point to remember is that this pair of closing par-fives have the capacity to completely transform rounds and leaderboards. Though rare, a 3/3 finish is plausible, and par is anything but a given on either hole. Many a drive has gone out of bounds on the 17th, and the water hazard added last year played havoc on the final hole. As it turned out, much of the sting was taken out of the 18th last year, with Ernie Els' changes attracting a stream of criticism and resulting in virtually everyone laying up during the final round. However, Els has made further changes and reckons most will be taking on the green in two this time, therefore restoring this great hole's reputation.

The ideal candidate is an experienced, long, straight driver
Driving accuracy is the name of the game around Wentworth. The tree-lined fairways are narrow and a smart position off the tee is essential to set up an approach shot. Naturally, that offers an advantage to experienced players who've learnt from previous mistakes. The last six champions were all making at least their tenth visit to Wentworth.

Although power off the tee is not essential to thrive, the best recent performers have been those who hit it both long and straight. Paul Casey won this title in 2009 and the 2006 World Matchplay on this course with imperious displays of driving. Likewise, Angel Cabrera's excellent course record owed everything to his blend of power and precision.

Stick with proven course form
Wentworth isn't everyone's cup of tea, as illustrated by some stark course form trends. Anyone thinking of backing Ian Poulter to follow up on Sunday's success at the World Matchplay should check out his appalling course record first. In nine visits, Ian has missed seven cuts with a best finish of 33rd. Graeme McDowell's record is only marginally superior, only once making the top-20 in eight attempts.

Alternatively, there are numerous Wentworth specialists, and not just the obvious. Anders Hansen has won this title twice, and made the top-five on a further couple of occasions, amongst a total of seven top-25s. Pretty impressive for someone guaranteed to start at decent odds in this company, as illustrated by this week's [55.0] quote on his favourite course, despite finishing runner-up on his last strokeplay start in Spain. Another lesser light, Richard Green, has made seven of the last 11 top-25s here.

Indeed, don't be afraid to back big outsiders if they've previously shown a liking for Wentworth. Khan's enormous odds last year were wholly in reaction to his lack of recent form, as he was a former runner-up with four top-25s already to his name here.

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