Golf Form Guide / Mike Norman / 05 March 2012 / 6

Mike Norman takes an early look at this week's World Golf Championship event as well as discussing why Rory McIlroy's putting has helped him become the number one golfer in the world.

Ignoring mentality and personalities for one second; have you ever wondered who would make up the perfect golfer?

Answer: Someone by the name of Ror-Lee McIlwood.

In fact, let's not ignore mentality and personalities and instead add Tiger Woods' mind (pre-scandal) and Phil Mickelson's infectious personality (not forgetting his skills around the green) to our perfect golfer and we really do have an unbeatable machine, consisting of four players who have demonstrated some excellent form of late.

Not surprisingly then, this week's slightly different Form Guide is concentrating on four players only; Woods, Mickelson, Rory McIlroy, and Lee Westwood.

Deservedly so, McIlroy is getting a lot of media coverage following his exploits last week. The 22-year-old Northern Irishman is the second youngest player ever to become the number one golfer in the world thanks to a win at the Honda Classic. That win comes a week after finishing runner-up in the WGC Match Play Championship and follows on from countless top-five finishes either side of the pond in recent months.

But is McIlroy really the best player in the world right now? Or is he simply the best putter in the world?

Ok, the season is still young, but Rory's stats tee to green so far this term are the worst numbers recorded by any of the recent world number ones. He ranks just 72nd in Driving Accuracy, 62nd for Greens in Regulation (GIR), and is way down in 80th when it comes to Proximity to hole (average distance away from the hole with approach shots). And these stats are consistent with his 2011 stats.

Compare McIlroy's tee to green stats with those of Westwood. The Worksop Wonder currently ranks sixth in Driving Accuracy, third in GIR, and first in Proximity to hole. In summary, Westwood easily finds more fairways than McIlroy, easily finds more greens, and is in most cases closer to the hole than his fierce rival.

But place a putter in these great players' hands and you'll see exactly why McIlroy has edged ahead of Westwood in the world rankings.

McIlroy ranks second on the PGA Tour's Putts per Round statistics, Westwood ranks 102nd. And in the Tour's Putts Gained stats (the number of putts better or worse than the field from a given distance) Rory is number one; Lee is way down in 168th. In layman's terms, McIlroy has become a wonderful putter of a golf ball; Westwood has become pretty awful at times.

Because the world rankings are, rightly so, based on tournament finishing positions, McIlroy thoroughly deserves his place as the new world number one. But if you were to ask me who is striking the ball better currently then, as the stats allude to, I'm definitely in Westwood's camp.

And I'm in good company too. On Sky Sports golf coverage on Thursday night, eight-time Order of Merit winner Colin Montgomerie said Westwood was the best player in the world through the green (tee to green) before adding, "If Lee sorts his putting out, he could and will win the Masters." I know many good judges will disagree with Monty but if you're not one of them then you can back Westwood at [18.0] to win the season's first Major next month.

First up for two of Europe's big stars is the WGC Cadillac Championship starting on Thursday. McIlroy is available to back at [7.4], with Westwood at [16.0], but sandwiched in between is Woods ([8.6]) and Mickelson ([15.0]).

Woods looked in terrific form on Sunday at the Honda, closing with a fabulous 62 to finish in a tie for second behind McIlroy; his second runner-up finish in his last four events after finishing second in Abu Dhabi recently.

And Mickelson is in even better form; Lefty recording a fabulous win at Pebble Beach before losing in a three-way play-off the following week. Both he and Woods also have winning form around this week's venue, the Blue Monster at Doral.

It doesn't take a genius then to suggest one of the big four could win this week. Choose between them if you prefer, but simply dutching the quartet at around [2.6] could be the answer. You're not quite getting Westwood's ball-striking, McIlroy's putting, Woods' mentality, and Mickelson's short game rolled into one, but it's about the closest you'll ever get.

EDIT (Tuesday): Betfair have introduced a Big 4 v The Field market with the current odds on offer for the Big 4 being less than what you can get if you dutched the four players in the Winner market. Always compare the two markets.

*(If you're unsure how dutching works then please leave a comment below if you would like me to explain)

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1. ste | 05 March 2012

   Don't know how you can say mcilroy is overrated but I do concer about westwood who is best driver of ball by a mile the stats don't lie

2. Mike Norman | 06 March 2012

   Ste - "Don't know how you can say mcilroy is overrated"

   That's because I've never said, or even suggested, that McIlroy is over-rated. Please Ste, I value your comments but please debate what I've actually said, not what you think I've said.

   I said, "McIlroy thoroughly deserves his place as the new world number one."

   In this piece I've simply pointed out that his play from tee to green isn't as good as Lee Westwood's, and the stats completely back me up on that. However, in many tournaments these days, not hitting the fairway all the time means diddly squat, and when you have a short game and can putt like McIlroy then you can still shoot low numbers.

   I have the utmost respect for McIlroy, he is a fabulous golfer and someone who has the potential to get even better. I don't think he is over-rated one bit; and I've never said so.

   Thanks for you comments however, especially the very valid point about Westwood which I do agree with.

3. Dancing Dave | 06 March 2012

   Ste I'm not sure where Mike claims that McIlroy is over rated, anyway mike would love to hear an explanation on the dutching system please.

4. Mike Norman | 06 March 2012

   Hi Dave.

   Dutching is to split the total amount you wish to spend on an event/market across more than one selection, thus meaning you win exactly the same amount whoever wins.

   For example; if you want to spend £20 on this event, rather than put £5 on each of the four players (Woods, McIlroy, Westwood, Mickelson) and hope that the biggest price one wins, you would use a Dutching Calculator to determine how much to stake on each player at their current odds - meaning you will profit by a set amount should any of the four win.

   In this case our £20 would be split as follows;

   £7.10 on McIlroy @ 7.4
   £6.11 on Woods @ 8.6
   £3.50 on Mickelson @ 15.0
   £3.28 on Westwood @ 16.0

   If any of the four were to win, your return would be £52.55, (odds of around 2.6)

   I hope this is clear Dave as I do have a habit of over-explaining things. Just shout if you’re still unsure.

   Here is the URL to the Dutching Calculator that I use;

   https://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/dutching-calculator.html
   

5. Dancing Dave | 08 March 2012

   Mike thanks for the info and the link, really helpful. I use oddschecker all the time and didnt know the dutching calculator was available so a great help.

   Just for info I'm ignoring the big four this weekend ahead of a busy week at Cheltenham!

   For a token interest and a fair bit of value I'm going with 4 of last years top ten finishers at Doral, Anders Hansen, F Molinari, Jonathon Byrd & Luke Donald who I think could come out all guns blazing after losing the number 1 spot.

6. Mike | 08 March 2012

   You're welcome Dave, and the very best of luck with your selections.

   I've just wrote on Twitter than Luke Donald is starting to look a tad over-priced. He's had a lot of things to deal with in his personal life recently, but if he's anywhere near his best then he should be half the odds he currently is.

   Good luck and enjoy the week.

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