Find Me A 100 Winner / Paul Krishnamurty / 07 February 2012 /

If you're looking for a lively outsider at this week's pro-am event at Pebble Beach then bang-in-form Paul Krishnamurty believes [500.0] shot Daniel Chopra is your ideal candidate.

This column's flying start to 2012 continued last week, bagging seven units profit before the end of the opening round at the Phoenix Open and perhaps more significantly, vindicating the wider strategy of trading golfers at very big prices, rather than simply backing them to win the tournament and hoping for the best.

Given his eventual position of 55th, nobody could describe Ryan Palmer as a good tip, yet such are the volatile swings and roundabouts of a 72-hole golf tournament, he did enough to hit the first, un-ambitious lay target.

Tempting as it is to crack on whilst in form, it may be best to keep stakes on outsiders to a minimum this week, as neither the Dubai Desert Classic or Pebble Beach pro-am have much pedigree for producing shock winners.

In the former, nobody since Robert Jan Derksen back in 2003 lacked world-class pedigree, and while the PGA Tour event is preferred, Pebble Beach has only been a marginally more productive venue for outsider backers. DA Points met our criteria last year, but he was only the third such triple-figure priced champion in two decades.

With those historical trends and last week's experience in mind, this week's strategy is extremely un-ambitious. Daniel Chopra is the sole pick, at mega-odds of [500.0], and rather than requiring the Swede to get into serious contention before banking a profit, the plan is to start laying back at [50.0].

Regular readers may recall Chopra going agonisingly close for this column on his final 2011 start, when finishing second after missing a very makeable putt on the final hole to reach a play-off for the Johor Open. Despite missing his first two cuts this term, the arguments behind that bet still apply.

Earlier this century, Chopra was a multiple PGA Tour and worldwide winner - a frequently dangerous outsider in high-class events. In this event at Pebble Beach, he registered four straight top-25 finishes from 2004 to 2007. A poor run followed, but there were definite signs of life in 2011. Prior to that near-miss in Indonesia, Chopra won on the Nationwide Tour and a couple of other late-season top-six finishes were enough to battle his way back onto the main tour. As a long-hitter and brilliant putter, he has the perfect statistical credentials for this pro-am.

If he just hits the first lay target of [50.0], we'll make nearly six times our small initial outlay. That would still leave a huge potential profit, so I recommend two further lay orders at [12.0] and [3.0].

Recommended bets

1.5u Daniel Chopra @ [500.0]
Place order to lay 10u @ [50.0]
Place order to lay 10u @ [12.0]
Place order to lay 20u @ [3.0]

Updated 2012 Stats: +59.5 units

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