Spain v Russia / Matthew Walton / 25 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Do we never learn? In every championship we have teams who start off like a house on fire, become everybody's fancy for the tournament and then crash and burn miserably in the knock-out stages. The likes of Croatia, Portugal and Holland readily spring to mind.

And, in stark contrast, we have teams who scrape through the early phases, squeeze into the latter stages and then somehow make it to the final. Germany seem to do it at every tournament but the French and Italians are pretty adept at this as well - although not this time around!

And, if we are to take anything from these championships. One scrap of learning to use in later (betting) life. It is to remember that the light which burns brightest also burns shortest. Don't fall for these fast starters. All tournaments require a steady build up of momentum and those who start the best are often the first to fail. Hold onto this fact, if nothing else, from Euro 2008.

And should Russia beat Spain in Vienna we shall see the perfect example of this phenomenon. Spain hammered the Russians in their first match. Surely they were the team to back to win this event? Russia, no chance!

Well, since then Spain have spluttered their way past Italy in the QF's whilst the Russians have ravaged the Dutch. Who would you say has the best of the momentum going into this second SF?

It's that old story of long-term class and short-term form. How best to approach this mouth-watering clash?

As is our way, we study these matches from two perspectives. Firstly, we will highlight the 10 Year Trends of each side. Looking at their record in competitive matches over the past decade.

Secondly, we examine the more peculiar details of head-to-head form, previous tournament results and managerial records, better known as the Match Facts.

Together this analysis is used to forecast the outcome of matches and, having employed this strategy throughout the group phase, we have to say it's been pretty successful.

So, we will discuss the outright match result, the correct score market, first goalscorer and also the Over/Under 1.5 goals market and then armed with this information you'll be ready to get stuck into the Betfair markets. Let us begin ...

Spain v Russia - 10 Year Trends

These are all competitive matches since January 1998. No friendlies just World Cup qualifiers and finals plus Euro qualifiers and finals.

Spain - P73 W48 D16 L9 F176 A52, clean sheets 35/73 (47%)
Russia - P64 W35 D15 L14 F112 A61, clean sheets 26/64 (40%)

As we have already seen, Spain bring strong credentials to the table. A win percentage of 65% is as good as any major side and a loss ratio of 12% is similarly impressive. They score at well over 2 goals/game (2.41) and concede at less than a goal/game (0.71).

As for Russia, their statistics are weaker. Winning just 54% is somewhere short of top class and losing 21% is 'average'. Goals for and against (1.75/0.95) are also nothing to write home about whilst a 40% clean sheet record is also inferior to their opponent's 47%.

Spain v Russia - Match Facts

Starting with the head-to-heads and we only have to go back a matter of 16 days to find the outcome of their last meeting. And Spain's 4-1 victory on that occasion was very much in keeping with previous encounters. Prior to that meeting in Innsbruck the nations had met 8 times with Spain holding a 4-1 advantage with 3 draws. It's now 5-1 to the Iberians.

We also see a clear lead for Aragones in terms of his reign compared to Hiddink - 69% wins to 56% - and a definite advantage in all the major data groups. On paper the Spanish are the stronger outfit. No contest.

Past championship form is the Russian's main hope. Here they rank pretty much neck-and-neck with Spain as both sides boast decent records in past finals.

Spain v Russia - Market Analysis

Outright result - it's funny, on first seeing the prices of Spain [2.16] and Russia [3.85] it seemed as though the Spanish were too short and the Russians too big.

But as we know from the figures above, Spain deserve to be the favourites and on account of winning 5 of 9 previous encounters (55%) they should actually be around [1.90]. They are a bit of value. Strictly on the head-to-heads, Russia are way too short and the draw [3.50] is also a shade on the big side.

Correct Score - a vote for the Spanish would have to be along the tried and trusted route of 2-0 [10.5] and 2-1 [11.5]. They are among the most prevalent scorelines in these finals and Spain had three 2-0's in 12 qualifiers plus one 2-1 and a further two 2-1's here. If you're backing Spain in 90 minutes, these two options present the best value.

Same actually goes for Russia as well. They won three qualifiers 2-0 plus their last group match against Sweden. They also have a couple of 2-1 wins in there as well. Odds here are 2-0 [23.0] and 2-1 [16.5].

First Goalscorer - Pavlyuchenko [8.6] for Russia, Villa [7.0] and Torres [7.0] for Spain. We have advised all of them successfully as first scorers in this tournament and there seems no reason to desert them now.

Over/Under 1.5 goals - under what circumstances could you suggest that the 'under' would be the bet? Especially given that the last match was 4-1. Yes, it could be tight as it's a SF but both sides have attacking intentions here and 21 of 28 matches thus far have been 'over'. That's 75% or around [1.33]. Here we're being offered [1.45].

Conclusion

Russia could very well come back to haunt the Spanish in this match. That first group meeting seems a long time ago and whilst Spain have hardly gone backwards since then, the perception is that they've levelled off somewhat.

It's Russia who appear to be on an upward curve and it's Guus Hiddink's side who may well prove our opening comments to be true. Major tournament play is all about peaking at the right time.

This promises to be good match. Two open and attractive sides producing and open and attractive game - we hope!

Tags: Euro 2008 bets, football stats, Spain football