Spain v Russia / Dan Fitch / 25 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Dan Fitch wonders whether he is experiencing a bout of déjà vu or merely suffering at the hands of hapless UEFA pen pushers.

Has there been an official explanation as to why teams that were in the same group are now able to play each other in the semi-final, rather than as previously, only in the final? Life is all about new experiences and we could have been watching Turkey score a last minute goal against Spain, or the Germans struggling to cope with ice cold Russia.

Luckily for UEFA, this game doesn't fill one with the sort of dread that a re-enactment of Romania v France would bring. Such has been Russia's transformation in the last two games, that they will be as unknown a quantity to the Spanish as the notion of not being cruel to animals.

History even brings a certain frisson to the game. What effect will that 4-1 victory for Spain, just a fortnight ago, have on this match? And what will be the effect of Spain's penalty win over Italy?

Spain beat their bete noir at the stage of a tournament that they are normally eliminated, via the penalty shoot out that they normally lose. This may make the Spanish feel unbeatable, or may leave them with nothing else to give.

If the Spanish have effectively already played their cup final, then at least they can take some pleasure from what they did to Italy. The Italian's lack of ambition was perplexing. Here were the world champions, playing as if they were some non-league side comprised of milkmen and welders. It was comparable to Tony Blair resigning from number 10 and then announcing that he was to spend the rest of his life running a newsagent shop in Kettering.

Though I won't miss the Italians as a whole, I will miss Luca Toni, just as he missed that everything he set eyes upon. I noticed that against Spain he had started to grow a slightly villainous looking moustache. It made him look like a bit like Errol Flynn, though Luca Toni would make a somewhat rubbish Robin Hood, as he'd always be firing his arrows just wide of his intended target.

Italy would not have been worthy finalists, but whoever progresses here will be. Both have shown ambition and attacking flair. Both have scored goals.

Interestingly, it is the sides that have been prepared to get forward and risk conceding goals, which have progressed in the tournament. Spain have broken the 2.5 goals mark in 75% of their matches. Russia have averaged exactly 2.5 goals per match, but this has been due to poor finishing rather than lack of opportunities, or lack of ambition.

Only one of Spain and Russia's four past encounters has resulted in over 2.5 goals. The one was of course Spain's 4-1 victory in the group stage. But since then Russia have conceded just one goal in three matches. They dropped central defender Roman Shirokov following his poor performance against the Spanish, though he is back in contention for a place, due to the suspension of Denis Kolodin.

Since 1996 only one of the six semi finals in the European Championships has broken 2.5 goals and only one of the games in the quarter finals of this tournament has produced three goals or more.

If it seems unlikely that a knockout game at this stage of the tournament would become a goal-fest, then perhaps we can draw solace from the way that these teams play.

Spain like to sit back and let teams attack them and then launch swift counter breaks. This policy saw them score plenty of goals in the group stages, though they did concede in each of their three games.

Against the negative Italians they were forced to take the front foot and it did not suit them. Russia can be relied upon to attack, though they will obviously be careful not to defend so naively as they did in their last match against Spain.

Under 2.5 goals is favourite at [1.7], with overs at [2.4]. I think that there will be goals in this one and even if the 2.5 isn't broken, those looking to trade should back the overs.

Tags: Euro 2008 Betting: Spain v Russia: 2.5 goals