Spain v Russia / Dave Farrar / 25 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Russia's transition from whipping boys to fluid moving contenders makes the group meeting between these two irrelevant, says Dave Farrar.

Match Odds

As people who gamble, we have to be students of form, and we have to set great store by it. It's all we have to go on. The starting point of any bet, whether it's on corners or bookings, goals or the correct score, is to look at what happened when the teams in question last met. The problem with this second semi final is the extent to which Russia's improvement throughout the tournament has rendered the events of Innsbruck on June 10th largely irrelevant.

There is one precedent in a European Championship for a team to have lost a group game and then turned the tables later on in the tournament, and that is Holland in 1988, when they lost to the USSR and then beat them in the final. On the other two occasions that this situation has arisen, Greece and Germany (albeit in extra time) franked the form against Portugal and the Czech Republic. So history actually tells us that Spain should overcome Russia. There are good reasons to disbelieve the bare facts on this occasion.

Russia panicked in their opening game and played into Spanish hands. If Konstantin Zyrianov had scored and not hit the post at 1-0 it might have been a very different match, and David Villa's second goal, just before half time, was perfectly timed to finish off the Russians. They have found their self confidence and they also have their best player back. Andrei Arshavin is marching towards the Ballon D'Or and I'm not sure that anyone can stop him. He makes Hiddink's tactics work and allows the talents of Anyukov, Zhirkov, Pavluychenko and co to flourish around him.

Russia have put in two brilliant performances in their last two games and they clearly believe that this is their year. In contrast, Spain have played poorly ever since that opening game. Their win against Sweden was put into context by the way that Russia ripped the Swedes apart, and then I thought they were dreadful against Italy. The popular view seems to be that Spain deserved to win against Italy because they "played the better football". Well, they had two shots on goal to one, but that's hardly something on which to base a semi final betting strategy. Spain got away with it in that quarter final, and I think that they are a spent force, and that Russia have to be the call to win this game and set up a classic final.

I wouldn't talk you out off laying Spain at [2.15] to get the draw on your side, but I'm going all in and am backing Russia to win the game at {3.9]

Correct Score

It's hard to see there not being goals and equally hard to see either team keeping a clean sheet. Both defences have looked shaky so far, and both teams have lethal forwards. I argue above that we shouldn't set too much store by that first game between the teams, but it did produce five goals, and I think that this will be a thriller. Russia to win 3-1 at [48.0]

First goalscorer

Two names spring to mind immediately for this market, both of them at big prices. I still want to keep Konstantin Zyrianov on side as, even though he is deeper lying since Arshavin returned, he still makes those darting late runs between opposing centre backs and, for someone who has scored once and hit the post twice at this tournament so far, he is way overpriced at {20.0]. I can't resist having a look at Sergio Ramos as well. Russia defended set pieces terribly against Holland and got away with it until Van Nisterooy's late equaliser. In training, Spain have based much of their set piece work around Ramos, and a player who got two goals in qualifying, and five last season for Real Madrid, should not be trading at [32.0] to get the first goal here.

Half-time

There's such outstanding value to be had elsewhere in this game that I'm not really interested in the half time market. The one bet that might be interesting is the first half goals. You can back over 1.5 first half goals at {3.35] and that could be a bit of value in an open game.

Corners

Russia did the job for us in their match against Holland, comfortably winning that corners match bet. The market for this match is a bit more reflective of what the real prices should be, with Russia the slight favourites in the corners match bet. I've seen a lot worse prices than the [2.08] for Russia to get more corners than Spain, but I was hoping that Spain, who topped the corner count in qualifying, would be installed as a weak favourite here. The market is about right, and so I'm going to leave it alone.

Tags: Andrei Arshavin, Anyukov, Corners, Correct Score, David Villa, Euro 2008 Betting, Fernando Torres, Half-time, Match odds, Pavluychenko, Russia, Spain, Zhirkov