Spain v Russia / Editor / 25 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Can free-scoring Spain repeat their group stage expolits and lay to rest the ghost of under-achievement? Stats on Sport have the answers.

HT

Whilst in the group stage meeting, Russia were 2-0 down by half time, they haven't conceded a first-half goal since, and have been 1-0 up in two of them. Moreover, 4/5 teams who've lost once to an opponent have been level at the break in their second meeting. Russia's renaissance is inextricably linked to their inspirational manager, Guus Hiddink. The Dutch legend has got four other teams out of the group stages of major tournaments, and has a solid W2-D6-L1 personal half-time record in knockout matches.
After winning Euro '64, Spain have become renowned underachievers at major tournaments, and their litany of disappointments is reflected in a half-time record of W2-D7-L4 in knockout matches since then. The draw has been less prominent since Luis Aragones took over as manager: only four of La Furia Roja's last 14 competitive games outside Spain have been all-square at the break (2/4 at Euro '08).

The latter stages of major tournaments tend to produce cagey, low-scoring matches, which means the half-time draw is relatively short at [2.16]. 6/10 European Championship semi finals would have paid out on this bet in the last 20 years, and there still looks to be a touch of value about that price.

HT/FT

All four of Russia's games so far have had the same result at full time that they had at half time. Indeed, the full-time result has matched the half-time position in 19/24 of Russia's competitive games outside their homeland since the start of Euro 2004 qualifying, including all three at this tournament. Overall, seven have been W-W, seven L-L and five D-D. At major tournaments since 1994, they've won 4/4 when leading at HT (including 2/2 at Euro 2008) but otherwise have a poor second-half record, losing 4/5 when trailing at HT and 5/7 after being level at HT.

Under Aragones, Spain have been ahead by half time in 8/12 of their competitive wins on foreign soil. They've won only two of the nine such games that have been level at the break, losing five of them. If you think the Spanish are going to win in 90 minutes, it's probably worth taking the longer odds available for the W/W [3.85], because that looks the most likely manner of victory.

Spanish Clean Sheet

Spain have kept a clean sheet in 9/19 games outside Spain under Luis Aragones (4/9 against teams ranked in the top 30) and their record is poor is low (6/22) at major tournaments since 1998.
Since qualifying for Euro 2004 began, Russia have scored in 18/24 competitive matches away from home, including all four at Euro '08. They've been similarly prolific at major tournaments, finding the back of the net in 11/16 since 1994.
Russia have been shut out as often as not by top-ten ranked sides though, and although Aragones's Spain have an undistinguished defensive record, [1.60] looks a bit short for them not to keep a clean sheet.

Russia Clean Sheet

Russia have kept a clean sheet in 9/24 of their competitive games outside their homeland since the start of Euro 2004 qualifying, but have conceded in all six games against teams ranked in the top 10. Indeed, they've kept their opposition out in only 3/16 at major tournaments since 1994, but two have come in their four games at Euro '08. Under Guus Hiddink, they've kept a clean sheet in 10/16 but none in four against teams ranked in the top 10.
Since Luis Aragons became manager, Spain have scored in 15/19 competitive away games, with only two failures to score in their last 16. They've found the back of the net in 17/22 at major tournaments since 1998 and in 9/13 knockout ties at major tournaments since 1984. Spain's good scoring record should be enough to help them find a way through, but [1.33] for Hiddink's men not to keep a clean sheet offers little value.

About the SOS Rankings

SOS consider FIFA's rankings unreliable, as they are based upon criteria clearly weighted to favour countries playing in weaker regional areas. SOS have therefore developed their own system of international football rankings, to give a more accurate guide of teams' relative strengths - and provide a more valid basis for their analysis.

The SOS rankings are based on a sample universe of more than 25,000 international matches, are updated every month, and attach a much greater weighting to both the relative importance of matches (friendly, competitive, major tournament) - as well as the relative strength of opposition and overall match supremacy. Allowance is also made for the game venue, not just in terms of simple home, away or neutral - but also in relation to the country's home continent. Points gained decay over a period of four years, the natural cycle of international football.

For the full SOS Rankings, click here, where you can also view previews for all matches.
All analysis, unless where noted, is based on competitive internationals since the start of the 1998 World Cup Finals.

Tags: Clean sheet, Euro 2008 Betting: Spain v Russia: HT, HT/FT