Nations / Dave Farrar / 28 May 2008 / Leave a comment

At [3.35], Dave Farrar could not recommend a bet on Turkey to get out of this group enough. But will the omission of Hakan Sukur by Fatih Terim prove to be a masterstroke or a misjudgement?

Group A - Turkey

People keep talking about who will be the "Greece" of Euro 2008, and, tempting though it is to say "Greece", I veer towards their great rivals (not sure the word "rivals" really covers the enmity between them) Turkey. There are legitimate concerns about them defensively, but all value bets require a leap of faith, and I'm prepared to take it with Turkey.

QUALIFYING

There is a lot to like about the way that both Greece and Turkey qualified from Group 3. None of the top 8 countries in Europe were drawn here, but nor were there any easy games, and this group had more strength in depth than any of the others, which makes for a much harder campaign. Even Malta, who finished bottom, have more quality than any of the other European football minnows. Turkey started well, and produced one of the great performances in their history by beating Greece 4-1 away from home. They lost at home later on to the eventual group winners Greece, and were also beaten in Bosnia, but what I liked about them was the way that they held their nerve in the last two games to make it through. First they won in Norway and then they beat Bosnia at home. They come into the European Championships more battle-hardened than many of the other countries.

Coach: Fatih TERIM

Terim is still a hero in Turkey after the success he had in his first time as national coach. He took Turkey to their first big championship in 42 years, Euro 96, and then added four league titles and a UEFA Cup with Galatasaray. His time in Italy was unimpressive, proving at Fiorentina and, briefly, Milan, that Turkish coaches travel about as well as Turkish players. Rather like Rehhagel and Beenhakker, his experience and tactical ability will count for a great deal come the summer.

KEY PLAYERS

NIHAT Kahveci

Nihat has had a great season for Villareal, and is regarded as one of the best deep-lying front men in La Liga; quite a compliment when you consider the alternatives. His job in the national side is to score goals, but also to create them for Tuncay and to feed the late runs of players like the brothers Altintop and Gokdeniz Karadeniz whose form at Rubin Kazan in Russia has been so impressive. How Nihat and Tuncay combine will be the key to Turkey's chances. The experience of Nihat and the exuberance of Tuncay must complement each other. If they do, it will be explosive.

VOLKAN Demirel

He was guilty of the odd mistake in Fenerbahce's Champions League campaign, but in general was outstanding. His performance in Fener's home win against Chelsea was one of the best goalkeeping displays that I've seen all season, and he has stepped into Rustu's shoes very neatly and effectively. He has had injury problems this season, but is reportedly fit and will get the nod over Rustu. He will have to play behind a shaky centre back pairing, but if he is able to produce confidence-giving displays, then Turkey may go a very long way.

TUNCAY Sanli

Fatih Terim's most important selection is a non-selection. By dropping the 37 year old Hakan Sukur from his squad he has placed a massive responsibility on the shoulders of Middlesborough's Tuncay. Hakan's god-like status in the country led to the rest of the team playing to suit his style, but that is no longer the case and the shackles will be loosened. Neither Tuncay nor Nihat are out-and-out front men and so expect Turkey to play a style akin to that of Nihat's club, Villareal, or of Roma. Strikerless, yet full of goals. Tuncay struggled initially to adapt to the Premier League, but once he found his feet his 8 goals were an important part of their strong finish to the season.

VERDICT

Turkey have to be backed to qualify from this group at the absolutely ridiculous price of [3.35]. A weaker Turkey side than this made the last 8 of Euro 2000, and the national team overcame "small country syndrome" to reach the semi finals of the 2002 World Cup. Just because people haven't heard of the individuals in this current squad doesn't mean that they don't possess similar qualities. I believe that this young generation of players is ready to win something. Turkey are also a strong fancy of mine to make the semi finals at around [6.8], and as we saw last time, from then on anything can happen.