Match 24 - Russia v Sweden / Dave Farrar / 17 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Russian fans ruefully told anyone who'd listen how much they'd miss Andrei Arshavin in the first two games of Euro 2008. Well, now he's back, and the win over Greece means that Russia have their best player in the team for their biggest match of the tournament. It is beautifully set up.

I'm not sure that the Russians have really missed Arshavin in their opening two games. He is a wonderful player to watch, and was absolutely key for Zenit St Petersburg, but creating chances is Arshavin's skill, and they've been doing that anyway.

Their weakness going forward is that they haven't got anyone to finish them off. Roman Pavlyuchenko would drive you mad if he played for your club. He has incredible technical ability but lacks a real killer instinct at this level.

He has a record of a goal every two games for Spartak Moscow, and got two as a substitute in the qualifier against England, but hasn't produced any other really key goals for the national team. He will need to do that against Sweden, but he has been struggling with an injury.

If Pavel Pogrebnyak hadn't been injured, I think that he would have started this game. He and Arshavin have a great relationship at club level, but Russia must make do with the personnel they have, and you can be sure that Hiddink will have them primed to produce.

The presence of the Dutchman on the Russian bench is a major plus for their backers. He has a well documented record of getting teams to overachieve in major tournaments, and I was impressed by his reaction to the opening defeat by Spain. Cool and calm, and that attitude was transmitted to the players for the relatively controlled win over Greece.

Lars Lagerback seems to have a similar effect on Sweden. There's nothing flashy about him, and, apart from Berti Vogts, no one has been on the bench in more European Championship finals games than Lagerback.

Sweden play in his image, and their businesslike unruffled style could be enough for a place in the last eight. They were unlucky against Spain, having done well to contain Villa and Torres for the most part, but that goal didn't really matter in the context of second place and Sweden only need a draw to progress.

I'd love Russia to make it through, mainly because their potential quarter final against Holland could prove to be one of the most open games in major tournament history, but I think that Sweden will just do it. Their compact style will not suit the Russians, and they'll get at least the draw that they need. Because the draw suits Sweden, I can't advise backing them, and I don't think that there's value in laying Russia, so I'll leave this market alone, and sit back and enjoy what should be a tremendous game in terms of both technique and tension.

FIRST GOALSCORER

Konstantin Zyrianov did the job for us at a big price against Greece, and it's tempting to put him up again, but we haven't had many goals from set pieces at Euro 2008 so far, and one could be likely here. The Russians don't defend particularly well from corners, and Sweden have a man in their line up who scored twice last season and who threatened many more times. He also grabbed one against Northern Ireland in qualifying. Olof Mellberg will be around [42.0] to get the first goal, and I'd be happy to take that price.

CORRECT SCORE

Russia have been involved in two open games so far, one producing five goals and the other just one, and, despite the pressure on both sides here, Russia really have to go for the win, and I think that will set the tone for a really good match. I'm not sure that Sweden will necessarily win, and so I'm going for a correct score of 2-2 at [20.0]

HALF TIME

This isn't a market in which I'll be having a bet, as Russia will start the game at a serious pace, and Sweden will try to counter. That makes it very hard to have an opinion on just who'll be ahead at half time or whether the teams will be level. I think that there'll be more goals than usual in the first half, and it make be worth taking a risk in the "half with most goals" market, but this game is simply too hard to predict in 45 minutes.

CORNERS

In contrast, the corners in this game are really interesting. Russia have been involved in corner counts of 10 and 16, and have won 15 corners in their two matches so far, while Sweden got 6 against Greece and didn't win one against Spain but conceded 7. This seems to point to backing Russia on the corner supremacy market, or laying 9 corners or under at what could be a very attractive price. The Sweden make up against Spain may just be an anomaly, as they kept it tight and Spain didn't really test them out wide. Russia will be a different matter altogether.

Tags: Euro 2008 bets, Euro 2008 odds, Ibrahimovic