Match 21 - France v Italy / Dan Fitch / 16 June 2008 / Leave a comment

When England failed to qualify for Euro 2008, as well as the obvious disappointment, I also felt a tinge of relief.

You see I feared that if we had qualified, then Steve McClaren would keep his job and come the tournament we would be embarrassed (especially if it rained). I'm still reasonably certain that this would have proved the case, but the surprise is the fact that we would have been in such salubrious company.

I think that it's fair to say that things haven't quite gone to plan for Italy and France. Both have been held by a Romanian team they were expected to beat and absolutely humiliated by the Dutch. England would have probably have managed to lose their match against Romania, but it's hard to see how they could have done much worse against Holland.

In the case of Italy though, perhaps things are on track. It would be quite typically Italian to scrape through the group by the slimmest of margins and then knock out one of the tournament favourites, in the shape of Spain. The penalty save by Buffon was certainly the sort of inspired moment of desperate defiance, that is looked back upon as a turning point by victorious teams.

But before Italy can think of success they may have to deal with their problems in attack. Only Nick Cotton has been presented with more chances than fell to Luca Toni against Romania, but like Dot's son, the lumbering Italian striker spurned them all.

To be fair to him, he did have a perfectly good goal disallowed and must have ruefully wished that had been a Romanian player lying down five yards behind the goal line.

It's not just in attack that Italy have problems, with their defence looking decidedly shaky. This has been a recurring theme for many a team in this tournament, with most back fours showing a lack of organisation and togetherness, only previously seen in This is Spinal Tap.

France's defence were certainly ripped apart by Holland, but I maintain that their real problems lie in midfield. It will be interesting to see how they perform after such a heavy defeat. The French are famously arrogant, but even they will struggle to strut after conceding four goals.

They French may gain some confidence from their record against Italy. The last time the Italians beat France was in 1978 and France beat Italy 3-1 at home, in qualifying for Euro 2008, whilst drawing the away game 0-0. The 3-1 victory was the only time that the 2.5 goal barrier was beaten in the last five games between the two nations.

Since Euro 96 there have been eleven teams that have gone into the final group game, with just a single point. Seven of these teams have been involved in a final group game of over 2.5 goals. This really is the last chance saloon for both sides and they will need to attack.

Both sides have a tradition for being involved in final group games that produce goals. Since 1996, two of Italy's final three group games have featured over 2.5 goals, whilst all of France's games have featured three goals or more.

Italy's attacking formation still seems to be up in the air. I would expect Toni to be retained, despite the stinker he had against Romania. Alongside him, Del Piero had a quiet game and it was the substitute Cassano that was the liveliest of the Italian forwards. Donadoni had the courage to reshape the team following the capitulation to the Dutch and he may feel the need to ring the changes again.

Possibly under the instruction of Russell Grant, the French coach Domenech also made several changes and I'd expect him to make some more against Italy. I think that this is one tournament too far for Thuram, though he may keep his place against an Italian team that lack the pace to exploit him.

With both defences looking porous and with plenty of attacking flair available to either coach, this looks like overs to me. The good news is that under 2.5 goals is the favourite at [1.81], with the overs at [2.22]. Expect a rip roaring game, which could well amount to nothing if Romania get the win they need.

Tags: Italian football, Luca Toni