Match 21 - France v Italy / Dave Farrar / 16 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Since the Euro 2008 draw was made, both France and Italy have been praying that this fixture would simply be about topping the group. .

Their worst case scenario has come about, with one of them able to send the other home, and with neither squad's destiny in their own hands. As if that pressure wasn't enough, the jobs of both coaches are clearly on the line. There is no way that Raymond Domenech would survive an early exit, and reports from Italy at the weekend suggested that Marcello Lippi is being lined up to step in should Roberto Donadoni fail

Donadoni has been the unlucky coach of the two, with Italy denied victory against Romania by a couple of strange decisions, and certainly not three goals worse than Holland. Italy have been bright going forward, and if Luca Toni had brought his club form here, then they could be coming into this match with four points rather than one. As it is, they're fighting for their tournament life.

They miss Fabio Cannavaro desperately, although they looked more solid without Marco Materazzi in the team, and I believe that they can still win this tournament, and that if they extricate themselves from Group C, that they will be the team that no one wants to face.

France had their moments against the Dutch, but their coach Domenech is being exposed for the barely adequate organiser that he is. He cultivates an air of deep thinking intelligence, and yet that can often be a mask for self doubt, and I think this is the case with Domenech.

He seems to have no idea about his best team. Karim Benzema started the first game, but by Match Two found himself behind the other four strikers in the pecking order. Domenech insists on playing Makelele and Toulalan in the centre of midfield, which limits creativity, and I don't think that he inspires the players.

In fact, it's becoming more and more clear that they don't really like him. France could still qualify, but it would be in spite of their coach, rather than because of him, and I feel sorry for their younger players, particularly Franck Ribery, who deserve a lot better than this. Donadoni is a top coach in the making, and I fancy him to get one over on Domenech.

Both teams are capable of scoring goals and both have to win, so I expect it to be an open game, and it will come down to who gets the goals. I have serious doubts about Luca Toni, but Italy have goal options all over the pitch, from the likes of Perrotta, De Rossi and Panucci as well as the strikers. France rely heavily on Ribery and whichever of the strikers that Domenech decides to play. Before the tournament I really fancied France, but I'll take Italy to put them out of their misery and send home one of the most talented squads to fail at a European Championship. Italy are the bet to win at [2.48]

CORRECT SCORE

As I've already mentioned, I feel that this will be an open game, and that Italy will outscore France and Donadoni will outcoach Domenech. I fancy Italy to edge a real classic, and am going for Italy to win by a 3-1 scoreline, at [27.0]

FIRST GOALSCORER

In matches involving teams with struggling strikers, there is really no point betting on one of the big names to score first. The prices are too short, and the way that Italy are set up means that there have to be value alternatives. Having watched Cristian Pannucci score crucial goals at Roma for the last three years, I was disappointed to miss out on him in the second match, but I thought that his Roma teammate Simone Perrotta was one of Donadoni's best players against Romania, and was desperately unlucky not to score. Perrotta gets himself into good positions with his forward runs, and he is value to score first at [22.0]

HALF TIME

It's worth taking the chance that there'll be goals in the first half, as there are some pretty big prices on that eventuality in the half time correct score market. I think that Italy will win the game, but it may take a while for them to prove their superiority. I'm going for 1-1 to be the half time score at [8.0]

CORNERS

This isn't a market on which to have a big bet, as I'm unsure of Raymond Domenech's tactical approach regarding his wide players. The statistics point towards a reasonably high corner count, as Italy have won 17 in their two matches and France won 6 against Holland after just 3 in that awful opening game. If you are desperate to bet on corners then lay 9 or under, but I think that there'll be better opportunities in future matches when it comes to corners.

Tags: Euro 2008 bets, Euro 2008 betting