Match 20 - Poland v Croatia / Dave Farrar / 16 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Match Odds

Fresh from their stunning win over Germany, and safely into the quarter finals, Croatia will look to keep momentum going against a Polish team that has been disappointing so far. I can't believe that a team coached by Leo Beenhakker has defended this badly so far, and I'm afraid that Poland have come to a major tournament once again and underperformed.

It's worth remembering that Poland qualified ahead of Portugal, but they have shown nothing like that form at Euro 2008. They have been disrupted by injuries to one or two key players, but that offers little excuse for pitiful displays against both Germany and Austria in which the defence has been disorganised and desperate. Poland can only qualify for the quarter finals if Germany lose to Austria, and they must still win here by a healthy margin because of their poor goal difference.

I just can't see that happening, as Poland aren't good enough. Austria missed five excellent chances in their 1-1 draw with the Poles, and when Beenhakker was complaining about the late penalty that his side conceded, he must have known deep down that it would have been a lucky win.

Croatia were also made to look hesitant by Austria, but they had the strength to hold on, and then built on that result with an energetic display that exposed every one of Germany's frailties. Luka Modric passed the ball beautifully, and Croatia looked solid in every part of the pitch. Slaven Bilic may rest players for this game, so watch team news, but the coach will be keen to keep up momentum, otherwise it would be too easy to fall back into the habits of a lot of teams.

It's often a bad idea to leave players out of final group games and lose them. Spain proved that in the last World Cup and coaches at this tournament will have taken note. If you need reminding of how well Croatia are able to perform when there is nothing resting on a match, then you have a very short memory. That was the situation when they came to Wembley and ended England's chances, and Croatia proved that "nothing to play for" means nothing in football terms.

Reserve players have an incentive to perform as there could be starting places at stake, and, while I don't think that we'll see Croatia "B" on Monday night, I'd still take Croatia "B" to beat Poland. Croatia are an inflated price for this game and simply must be backed at [3.0] to send Poland home with one point. At that price, it is one of the bets of the tournament so far.

Correct Score

Croatia are much more of a forward threat than they showed against Austria and Germany. They were involved in a number of high scoring games in qualifying, and this could fit that pattern. It's worth taking a chance on the "any unquoted" market here at [12.0]. Poland will push forward, and Croatia could dish out a real hiding on the counter attack.

First Goalscorer

Bilic is almost certainly going to have a look at his squad, and lurking on the bench is a group of very gifted players. Ivan Klasnic has come back from kidney surgery to play football again and we can take advantage of him being on the way to recapturing his best form and back him to score first. His career is hard to judge as it's been so blighted by injury, but during his purple patch with Werder Bremen two seasons ago, he looked like an outstanding finisher. Watch the team news, and if Klasnic plays, back him at around [9.0].

Half Time

I just can't see beyond Croatia for this game. How can the team that led at half time against Germany and Austria be [4.0] to lead at half time here? I'll make the same argument that I do in the Match Odds market. If you constantly backed teams on the basis of what they had to do rather than what they could do, then you'd be on a rocky road. Just because Croatia don't have to win doesn't mean that they won't. Just because they don't have to lead at half time doesn't mean they won't. Get behind the professionalism of Bilic and his squad and take the [4.0] on Croatia to do what they've done in their other two games and be ahead at half time.

Corners

I think that this will be an open game, and given that we are faced with two teams who produced corner counts of 17 and 14 in their last matches, it's very simple. Lay 9 corners or under at [2.4] and back over 13 at [3.55] as well to try and maximise profit.

Tags: Euro 2008 bets, Euro 2008 betting, Slaven Bilic