Match 18 - Turkey v Czech Republic / Dave Farrar / 14 June 2008 / Leave a comment

It's rare that a major tournament provides a play off scenario quite like this. Turkey and the Czech Republic are level in every sense going into the game and, should this match end in a draw, a place in the quarter finals will be decided by a penalty shootout.

And remember, there's no extra time to spin things out and so a sudden death climax is more likely than it would be in a knockout game. Turkey's exhilarating comeback against Switzerland in the driving rain provided us with one of the best nights of Euro 2008 so far.

The game had everything, and was given a stunning denouement when Arda Turan ran like the wind and finished off the co hosts. That win, and the manner of it, proved that this Turkish squad does have the confidence to achieve something at Euro 2008. It was a lack of belief that stood in their way, but now they must feel that they can set up a quarter final against Croatia.

The Czech's performance against Portugal was so impressive, though, that it's hard to fancy the Turks too much. I was staggered by how well Karel Bruckner's team played in their second match. They were poor and very lucky against Switzerland, and yet somehow they dug out a display which put Portugal under massive pressure. On another day, the Czech Republic could have got at least a draw, and if they play like that here they could end up being too strong for Turkey.

I'm not a fan of tipping the draw in the Match Odds market, as I feel that if you don't have a strong opinion either way then you're guessing and wasting your money. The draw is a massive runner here, however, because of the penalty shootout that will hover over this game if it's level going into the final half hour. The Czechs will be hugely confident if spot kicks are required, as they have never missed a penalty in a shootout at a major tournament, but both sides may settle for the draw as the game develops and leave qualification to chance.

It's the nature of players that they'll prefer not to make the error that costs their team, rather than take the risk that would win the match. So I'm going for the draw for the first time at Euro 2008, at [3.15]

CORRECT SCORE

Even though the game could peter out for the reasons set out above, both teams have goals in them as they proved in their second outings at the tournament. 2-2 is tempting because of that, but I'm cautiously tipping a 1-1 draw at [7.0].

FIRST GOALSCORER

We had to wait for ninety minutes before we saw the much vaunted Turkish winger Arda Turan at Euro 2008 and what a difference he made for Fatih Terim. The team looked more lively and much more confident, and then he produced that wonderful climax. Arda had a good goalscoring season for Galatasaray, getting 7 from out wide, and now that he's found his feet here, the last goalscorer from Basel is worth chancing as First Goalscorer in Geneva. Arda to set the Turks on their way at a likely price of [17.0].

HALF TIME

The Czechs have been level at the break in both of their games so far, and Turkey were level against Portugal and behind against Switzerland before that great comeback. I'm not interested in backing the draw at half time here, but if I had to have a bet then an exchange of early goals followed by a stalemate is likely. You can back the 1-1 correct score at half time at [12.0], and that is the value play here.

CORNERS

Turkey's corner performance has been consistent in the tournament so far. They managed five in both of their games, and have been involved in match corner counts of 12 and 11 against Portugal and Switzerland. The Czechs won only 3 flag kicks against Switzerland, but in a much more attacking performance against Portugal, they got 6. Their first game had 9 corners, and their second had 12. This points to a potential lay of nine and under, but given that this match could end cagily as both teams wait for penalties, I'm not going to get involved. There will be better opportunities to make money from corners elsewhere.

Tags: Czech Republic football, Euro 2008 bets, Euro 2008 betting, Faith Terim