Match 18 - Turkey v Czech Republic / Matthew Walton / 14 June 2008 / 1 Comments

The knock-out phase starts early for these two sides as with Portugal already through and Switzerland already out, the Czechs and the Turks meet in a winner takes all encounter. And, if it's a draw, we might even see penalties!

The Czech Republic have probably been the more disappointing of the two nations. A narrow win in their first match against the Swiss was followed up by that 3-1 defeat at the hands of the Portuguese. Many would have expected more from Karel Bruckner's side.

Turkey aren't the force which saw them do so well in Japan & South Korea. Their side is much more solid than spectacular. Still, that late winner against the Swiss gives them the chance to progress should they overcome their opponents here in Geneva.

The stakes are high for this match. Will we see a free-flowing game as both teams strive to make the QF's or will we see both sides prefering to keep things tight and hope for that one chance which might send them through? As ever the statistics will determine our approach to this game.

Remember, we're not gambling with the heart, we're betting with the head.

As per usual we will be examining this match from two perspectives. Firstly, we will highlight the 10 Year Trends of each side. Looking at their record in competitive matches over the past decade and drawing conclusions from this data.

Secondly, we will examine the finer details of head-to-head form and previous tournament results, better known as the Match Facts, to formulate the best way of approaching these matches on Betfair. And, remember, the more information at your disposal, the better your decision making will be and, we trust, the better you profits will be.

Together this analysis will be used to predict the outcome of four key markets for each match. We will discuss the outright match result, the correct score market, first goalscorer and also the Over/Under 1.5 goals market.

Armed with this information you'll be ready to get stuck into the Betfair markets.

Czech Republic v Turkey - 10 Year Trends

These are all competitive matches since January 1998. No friendlies just World Cup qualifiers and finals plus Euro qualifiers and finals.

Czech Republic - P69 W50 D6 L13 F151 A51, clean sheets 35/69 (50%)
Turkey - P71 W38 D20 L13 F125 A60, clean sheets 35/71 (49%)

Hard not to be impressed by the Czechs. A win record of 72% and a scoring rate of 2.18 goals/game compared to just 0.73 conceded. Bruckner's men have proven to be tough opponents in recent years. Turkey, by comparison, are weaker. Wins at 53% is one thing but do note they draw plenty which actually makes their loss rate (18%) the same as the Czechs. Clean sheets are almost identical as well.

Czech Republic v Turkey - Match Facts

Looking at the head-to-heads and there seems little point in Turkey even turning up for this match. Of 14 matches played it reads 10-1 in favour of the Czech Republic in terms of wins, with 3 draws. Turkey's biggest (and only) win was 1-0 in 1958! However, their most recent meeting was a 2-2 draw in Izmir in 2006 and that might be the yardstick by which to judge this encounter.

Bruckner is clearly no mug. He has presided over a successful Czech side who are ranked in the world's top ten and must realise his side need to play better. Two goals in two matches here, thus far, isn't true to form, but perhaps they are missing Rosicky more than first thought. They kept it tight against the Swiss but then Portugal put three past them - the defence must perform here. All-round the Czechs need to play like a top ten side.

Fatih Terim has seen his team well beaten by Portugal and then scrape past the Swiss. For their sheer battling spirit the Turks deserve a shot at qualifying and you can be sure they will give it their all. However, his reign has seen the national side steadily decline. Just 15 clean sheets in 41 matches (36%) could prove to be a telling statistic in this match and Turkey must keep it tight as they haven't been scoring that many goals of late.

Czech Republic v Turkey - Market Analysis

Outright result - no surprise to see the Czech Republic [2.38] as favourites. Their head-to-head record, ranking and qualification (ahead of Germany) demands this price. Turkey [3.75] are a hard cause to champion. They bring little, statistically, to bear on this match. The draw [3.15] is the only other consideration. Its short price suggests many feel it an option. It is logically but not statistically. Hence the Czech win has to be the advice.

Correct Score - traditionally there are plenty of goals in this fixture also any side trailing will have to 'go for it' to get level and that could lead to more goals, either way. Backing the Czechs to win opens up a number of possibilities and we can aim big here. Try a range of these bets as 2-0 [12.0] seems plausible but for really big returns the 3-1 scoreline [27.0] offers a huge return and 3-0 [32.0] has more data behind it than, say, the 1-0 (the Czech Republic have beaten Turkey 3-0 three times and 1-0 only once).

First Goalscorer - patience has worn thin with Baros. Libor Sionko [11.5] has looked in decent nick and does score goals for the national side whilst Koller [8.2] is still overpriced given his record of 54 in 89 matches.

Over/Under 1.5 goals - this has to be 'over' at [1.54]. The last round of matches in groups are statistically the highest scoring and these two have a history of goals between them. Yes, it could start as a nervy encounter but a goal will soon change that.

Conclusion

This could be a cracker, it could be a damp squib. It's hard to predict just how this match will be played out.

Common sense would suggest that the longer we go without a goal the cagier the two sides will become as the thought of penalties might cross their minds. That said, the figures do point to there being goals and once the first one goes in we should see a good match.

There could be some tremendous prices to be had on Betfair. As highlighted above a few speculative bets at big prices are warranted on the basis of our research.

Tags: Czech Republic football, Euro 2008 betting, Euro 208 odds