Match 17 - Switzerland v Portugal / Matthew Walton / 14 June 2008 / Leave a comment

One side are already into the QF's, one side has already been knocked out of the tournament. Do we expect Portugal to take it easy? Will the Swiss try for one last face-saving performance? Or will it just be reduced to a 90 kick-about in Basle?

From a Portuguese perspective you would expect another professional showing. Winning is a good habit to have and even though Scolari may rotate several players the depth of talent in his squad should be a match for the deflated Swiss.

Switzerland do need to put in a performance - but how do you overcome that heart-breaking last minute loss to Turkey? Out of the event and without your leading scorer (Frei) the omens don't look good for Jakob Kuhn's side.

Such matters make this match an intriguing one for backers. How will these two sides approach this game? And how should we, as backers, approach it ourselves? Perhaps a look at the statistics will shed some light on this troublesome question.

As per usual we will be examining this match from two perspectives. Firstly, we will highlight the 10 Year Trends of each side. Looking at their record in competitive matches over the past decade and drawing conclusions from this data.

Secondly, we will examine the finer details of head-to-head form and previous tournament results, better known as the Match Facts, to formulate the best way of approaching these matches on Betfair. And, remember, the more information at your disposal, the better your decision making will be and, we trust, the better you profits will be.

Together this analysis will be used to predict the outcome of four key markets for each match. We will discuss the outright match result, the correct score market, first goalscorer and also the Over/Under 1.5 goals market.

Armed with this information you'll be ready to get stuck into the Betfair markets.

Switzerland v Portugal - 10 Year Trends

These are all competitive matches since January 1998. No friendlies just World Cup qualifiers and finals plus Euro qualifiers and finals.

Switzerland - P47 W19 D16 L12 F70 A48, clean sheets 20/47 (42%)
Portugal - P69 W45 D15 L9 F160 A56, clean sheets 35/69 (50%)

Switzerland concede more than a goal/game which, as we've seen, is poor at this level. And to score 1.48 goals/game is nothing more than ordinary. Losses are quite low given these facts (25%) but wins aren't that high (40%). Portugal beat them in every category and in some by quite a margin. Goals scored 2.31 per game, they concede a mere 0.81 goals/game. They win 65% of their matches - and will do this one, so says the figures.

Switzerland v Portugal - Match Facts

At least the co-hosts can draw some comfort from the head-to-head records. An overall lead of 8 wins to 6, with 5 draws, in 19 matches. However, they have still got a goal difference of -2 despite those 2 extra wins (some things never change!). They did win the last meeting back in 1993 but the relevance of that on this match is rather difficult to quantify.

Scolari may well afford himself the opportunity to start writing a shopping list for Chelsea during this match. It really is that insignificant. Mind you, a win will keep the squad on a roll and there is the cliché about fringe players putting in performances to impress the boss (however short a period he's here for). Big Phil's record is very good with the national side and can only point to the win given the opposition on show.

By comparison, Kuhn has to rally the troops for one final performance in front of their own fans. They're not so much on the first plane home but the first bus home seeing as though they're playing in their own backyard. With a poor goal difference and little to play for this will be a severe test against fluid, technical and pacey opponents. The future looks bleak for Switzerland unless the Portuguese are already preparing for the QF's.

Switzerland v Portugal - Market Analysis

Outright result - clearly the view is that Portugal [2.36] can take it easy and coast into the next phase. Switzerland [3.4] could be the chief benefactors with the draw [3.45] about right. However, this sits uncomfortably with the statistics, and common sense, which states that even a qualified, weakened Portuguese side should still have enough to beat an unqualified, weak Swiss side. The [2.36] might turn out to be a steal.

Correct Score - should Portugal hold sway in this match it will probably come via the inadequacy of the Swiss as much as their own brilliance i.e. it's more likely to be won 1-0 than 4-3. That 1-0 scoreline [9.2] does look big and even the 2-0 [12.5] seems generous should the data, as it does, point to a Portugal win.

First Goalscorer - much will depend upon line-ups. With a few favourites no doubt warming the bench a look to the second-string like Hugo Almeida [7.6] and Ricardo Quaresma [10.0] may well enter calculations and prove to be the value in what could be an unpredictable market.

Over/Under 1.5 goals - just the one match has been 'under' so far in this group and with the Portugal attack on show against a porous Swiss defence, the 'over' has most appeal. That said, the price [1.35] is hardly one to retire on. As such, it may prove the logical call in a fixture which has been 'over' in 7 of the last 10 encounters.

Conclusion

Again a match where the perceived wisdom of some backers comes up against the actual wisdom of us form students. For many this will be a relaxed affair with little at stake.

The statistics don't really point to this outcome though. We should see a strong side, albeit fielding a few reserves, beat a weak side.

Consequently, we should be able to secure a good bit of value on Betfair. A win for Portugal and the correct score markets look particularly generous and may well be the best way to play this match.

We'll see more of Portugal after tonight but as for Switzerland it's a case of 'thanks for the hospitality, see you again soon'.

Tags: Euro 2008 betting, Euro 2008 odds, Portugal Euro 2008