Match 17 - Switzerland v Portugal / Matthew Walton / 14 June 2008 / Leave a comment

If there was anything at stake in this game, other than Swiss pride, then tipping the winner would be a formality. Portugal have been a class above the other teams in this group, and although I have concerns about their goalkeeper Ricardo, they look in excellent shape ahead of a likely quarter final against Germany.

My pre tournament concerns about Portugal were all about goalscoring, but that hasn't been a problem so far, and the absence of an in form centre forward has been compensated for by the five different players who have stepped up to the plate and managed to get on the scoresheet.

Pepe and Carvalho have looked the best central defensive pairing at Euro 2008, and apart from a couple of panicky moments against the Czech Republic, they look the kind of team that you can have faith in. Switzerland's chances were slim before the tournament, but they were wiped out when Alexander Frei was injured before half time in their first game. He is no goal machine, but Kobi Kuhn's leader, and his most likely goalscorer, was an integral part of their chances. They would probably have still been eliminated with him in the team, but without him, they had no chance. I was surprised by their lack of mental strength in that dramatic defeat by Turkey. Having been fortunate to snatch a goal, I expected the defensive efficiency that we saw in the last World Cup to take over, but they crumbled.

It's the kind of thing that simply won't be allowed to happen under the new regime of Ottmar Hitzfeld, and that's why Swiss football fans can look to the future with some confidence. But not the immediate future. It's the identity of Portugal's likely quarter final opponents which sets the tone for this match. Luis Felipe Scolari does not want to lose momentum and I don't think that he'll be tempted to rest more than two or three players. That makes Portugal a great bet to win the match, and to do so convincingly, as even their reserve side would have a healthy chance of winning this. Of course it would be wise to wait for team news, and I won't put you off doing that. I expect Scolari to do all that he can to keep this winning run going, though, and I'll take Portugal to win comfortably against a pedestrian side that have already lost to two far weaker nations than Portugal. The [2.4] for them to win is based on the incorrect assumption that they won't win because they don't have to. At that price, it's a must bet.

CORRECT SCORE

Portugal have scored five goals so far and I think they'll keep that form going. The Swiss look weak at the back, and started to tire towards the end of that Turkey defeat. It will take a monumental effort for Switzerland to raise themselves here, and I can't see them putting enough pressure on Ricardo to expose his weaknesses. If Portugal get in the mood, they could thrash the co hosts and go into the quarter finals on a wave of confidence. I'm going for "any unquoted" in this market, which means that Portugal must score 4 or more. [14.0] is a massive price.

FIRST GOALSCORER

Five goals and five different goalscorers for Portugal. So where do you find first goalscorer value? I'm loathe to desert Joao Moutinho who is a big price, but he looked tired in the second match and didn't play to his potential. One of the usual substitutes who's likely to get a start from Scolari is Ricardo Quaresma, and after scoring the third against the Czech Republic, he'll be feeling confident. He comes into this tournament after his best goalscoring season for Porto, and so he's a cautious selection in an open market. Quaresma to set Portugal on their way at [10.0]

HALF TIME

There's value to be had here given the likely dominance of Portugal. They haven't yet been ahead at half time, but given that Switzerland will feel duty bound to entertain the home fans and push forward from the start, they should be picked off on the counter attack. Portugal will score early, and then consolidate their position. Scolari's team to kill the match before the break, at a tempting [3.05].

CORNERS ODDS

Portugal have proved the corner kings, and in what should be an open game, it would be crazy to desert them here. The bare statistics tell you all that you need to know about this bet. Portugal have won 13 corners so far, and Switzerland have won 12 in their two matches. This game will be more attacking than the others in the group, and so I'm going for a lay of 9 and under corners, and am also going to have a smaller stake on 13 or over.

Tags: Euro 2008 betting, Euro 2008 odds, football betting, Joao Moutinho