Match 16 - Greece v Russia / Dave Farrar / 13 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Two coaches who have achieved extraordinary things at major championships go head to head here, and they both have some thinking to do after disappointing opening displays. Guus Hiddink knows that if his team can get a result here, then they can take on Sweden in their final group game, and play for a place in the quarter finals.

Their star player Andrei Arshavin, who is suspended for one more game before he can return, will be ready to inspire them, and so they have every incentive to see off the Greeks.

Going forward wasn't Russia's problem against Spain, as they created chances and applied pressure without having Arshavin in the team. They were catastrophic at the back though, and the Dutchman's decision to start the tournament with Roman Shirokov and Denis Kolodin at centre back was a big mistake. They looked all at sea against Fernando Torres and David Villa, but the good news for Hiddink is that Greece won't be able to move the two defenders around in the same way, and they should have a more comfortable time.

Rehhagel's team were dreadful in their defeat by Sweden. It seemed as if they came into the tournament believing that, having ground their way to a shock win in Euro 2004, they had to be ultra negative to succeed here. Their style four years ago wasn't based on negativity, but on energy. They pressurised their opponents and ran them into submission. Against Sweden, they passed the ball too slowly, and seemed content to play for a 0-0 draw.

Fanis Gekas may not have had his best game up front, but he barely got any service, and his isolation before he was taken off at half time summed up the anaemic Greeks. The temptation is to back Russia here, as they have so much more to offer the tournament than the holders, but before lumping on, you have to ask yourself whether Russia will have the confidence and the strength to find a way past Greece. If they do, then they could go on to win well. But the news that Roman Pavyluchenko is an injury doubt, and the absences of both Pavel Pogrebnyak and Arshavin puts a lot of pressure on the Russian midfield to come up with goals.

Hiddink is constantly trying to take the pressure off his team by talking about their lack of experience, but they should be good enough to out Greece out. I'm taking Russia to win at [2.18] and set up a thrilling final game against Sweden.

CORRECT SCORE

I have enough faith in Russia to tip them to win the match, and as Greece chase the game I think that we could see this quick thinking Russian side at its very best. Hiddink's team took a thumping against Spain and they may just be in the mood to dish one out if they can get the goal that will set them on their way. Russia to win 3-0 at [27.0] and send the holders out of Euro 2008.

FIRST GOALSCORER

I mentioned Konstantin Zyrianov as likely First Goalscorer material in my preview to Russia's opening game, and after his performance against Spain I certainly haven't been put off. He made several of his trademark late runs and was unlucky to hit the post in the first half. He is well worth another chance to score first here and set Russia on their way. As always with this market, put up a price and try to get it matched. Somewhere around the [20.0] mark would be value.

HALF TIME

Russia may have scored their goal late on against Spain, but as an attacking threat they looked much livelier and more dangerous in the first half. Zyrianov hit the post and they had several other promising positions. Hiddink likes them to start strongly, as he has always encouraged his teams to do, and I wonder if the cumbersome Greek back line will have an answer to Russia's skilful approach. They may be vulnerable early on, and so I'm going for Russia to lead at half time, at [3.0].

CORNERS

Russia outscored Spain in the corner count in their first match, and that shows just how much of a threat they are from out wide. There were so many moves in wide attacking areas that it's surprising that there weren't more corners, and given that Greece were involved in a game against Sweden which had 12 corners, then once again like a broken record I'm going to lay 9 or under corners and also back Russia in the corner supremacy market.

Tags: Euro 2008 bets, Euro 2008 betting, Guus Hiddink