Match 15 - Sweden v Spain / Robert Hughes / 13 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Spanish coach Luis Aragones is convinced that his team have grit and determination to go with their obvious talent, insisting at a recent press conference that 'this group of players is here to win the tournament at all costs'. A significant step towards proving this would be to dispose of Sweden and qualify for the Quarter-Finals (something they failed to achieve four years ago) at the earliest possible opportunity.

The Swedes are likely to provide a stiffer test than the Russians did in Spain's 4-1 victory. Hard-working and organised in defence, and having picked up the three points against Greece, they will be aware that two draws from their remaining games will almost certainly be enough to see them through to the next stage. As such, Spain will probably have the majority of the possession, but will need to be patient to break down a tough Swedish defence.

Most likely to breach that defence, of course, are the much-lauded strike duo of David Villa and Fernando Torres, who are available at [2.5] and [2.3] respectively in the To Score market. Torres in particular will be straining at the leash, as he was clearly less than happy at being substituted early in the second half against Russia, having put in an excellent first half performance. For less obvious potential scorers you could consider the clever playmaker David Silva at [5.3], or full-back Sergio Ramos, who likes to get forward and is dangerous from set-pieces, at [9.6].

For Sweden, Ibrahimovic's stunning goal against Greece is sure to generate a lot of interest in him to find the net again, and he is currently [4.0] in the To Score market. Henrik Larsson was finally starting to look his age against the Greeks, but if you fancy him to roll back the years and score in what surely must be his last major tournament, he can be backed at [4.5]. If Sweden do adopt a cautious approach, it may be that they are only able to threaten the Spanish goal through corners and free kicks, in which case it might be worth a look at centre-back Olof Mellberg at around [12.0], who can be a threat in the air. Captain Freddie Ljungberg, always a lively presence, might also be worth a look at [8.8].

The Asian Handicap market currently offers Spain-0.5 at [1.69], which I'd say is about right. Sweden will most likely try to frustrate them, but it's difficult to see this Spanish team, with the creativity of Iniesta, Silva and Xavi, plus the deadly finishing of Villa and Torres, failing to score - but I would not expect a resounding Spanish victory here.

Referee Peter Vink will be taking charge of his second match of the tournament, having officiated at the Austria v Croatia game, in which he booked four players. However, that game was a little more testing than this encounter is likely to be, and neither Spain nor Sweden received a single yellow card in their opening game, so I would look at 5 points and below at [3.3] in the Booking Odds market. If Sweden do play ultra-defensively, it's possible that the game may turn into something of a siege on their goal, in which case it's possible to imagine a lot of free-kicks being conceded, and a few Spanish players getting frustrated, so you might also want to consider 6-8 points at [2.2]. The Booking Index market for this match currently stands at around - .

Sweden are a significantly older team than their opponents (the average age of their starting line-up against Greece was over 30) and having had to work much harder in their opening game than the Spanish, they will probably tire more quickly, especially if Spain are able to play their usual possession game and Sweden are forced to chase the ball for long periods. With this in mind, it is worth considering Draw / Spain at [5.0] in the Half Time / Full Time market, as fatigue may cause the Swedes to make mistakes late in the game. However, if you fancy them to frustrate their opponents and come away with a point, Draw / Draw is available at [5.8].

Tags: Booking Odds, Full time market, Half time, Sweden v Spain: Match Odds, The Asian Handicap Market, To score