Match 15 - Sweden v Spain / Dave Farrar / 13 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Both Sweden and Spain come into this game in form, and both know that a win would put them into the quarter finals with a game to spare. This will be a massive test for Spain, as will the final group match against Greece.

Guus Hiddink neatly summed up his view of the Spanish method after his Russian team had been ripped apart in the opening game of the group: "I would like to see how Spain react when they have to face an opponent who will offer them better opposition, against a team who know the law of international competition."

Hiddink has a point, in that Russia's style played into Spanish hands, and his players weren't able to carry out his pre-match instructions to a level with which he was happy. Sweden have much more experience, and are far more likely to make life really tough for Luis Aragones.

Torres and Villa will not be able to run riot the way they did in the first match, and Lars Lagerback will set Sweden up to contain Spain at first, and then try and hit them with Larsson and Ibrahimovic. Zlatan's return to international form couldn't have come at a better time for Lagerback, and if he can continue to show his Inter Milan best at this tournament, then Sweden could make solid progress.

Despite thinking that Hiddink was absolutely right to insinuate what he did in that post match interview, I don't want to do Spain down or desert them in any way. They picked Russia off quite brilliantly, and there was a clinical edge to their display that you don't always get from them. Every mistake was punished, Xavi and Iniesta ran the midfield, and of course Villa in particular was spectacular. Their defending is a worry, as they look sluggish in central areas, and Russia caused them serious problems before they finally got their goal. If Konstantin Zyrianov hadn't hit the post when well placed in the first half, the outcome could even have been different. Iker Casillas is a huge plus - he rivals Cech and Buffon as the best goalkeeper in the world, and makes the defensive side of Spain the mirror image of Portugal. For Spain, dodgy centre backs, excellent keeper, Portugal the other way round.

I do think that Spain will win this game, but it will be close, and Sweden will be able to repel a hungry Spanish team for longer than Aragones would like. I certainly won't back Spain at their current price of [1.7] though, and, even though I'll try to support them elsewhere, I'll leave this market alone

Correct Score

It will be a tight game, and it will be decided by the odd goal - Spain win by that scoreline on more occasions than you might think. They have to look beyond Villa and Torres for a breakthrough, and it may take time for them to find a way. Spain to win a close match by a 1-0 scoreline at [6.8].

First Goalscorer

It could be dangerous to ignore one of the in form strikers at the tournament, David Villa. In the 2006 World Cup he started with two goals in a great performance against the Ukraine, and followed that by fading as the tournament progressed so he is difficult to trust. In a quest for value, I'm going to back Spain to score from a set piece, and their most powerful weapon at those is Marcos Senna, who very nearly scored with a header against Russia. He'll be backable at around [20.0] on Betfair, and try and get bigger matched if you can.

Half Time

A tight game means a tight first half, so there's no reason to desert the plan of going for the draw at the break. Sweden were level in their first match at half time, and they'll look to keep it similarly error free here. I'll take a half time 0-0 scoreline at [2.28]

Corners

Spain nearly let corner backers down in that first game against Russia, and it was astonishing that a team which averaged nearly ten flag kicks a game in qualifying should win only four against Russia. Sweden like to play with width, and even though they have lost Christian Wilhelmsson from the right wing, their ability from out wide, and Spain's usual high average, means that a lay of nine or under corners is the play once again in these Championships.

Tags: Corners, Correct Score, First Goalscorer, Half Time, Match Odds, Spain, Sweden