Match 15 - Sweden v Spain / Matthew Walton / 13 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Spain, many people's fancy for the title, impressed in their first match. Sweden surprised a few with their victory over the defending champions, Greece. Now the top two in Group D meet with progression to the QF's very much in their own hands.

David Villa's hat-trick on Tuesday in Innsbruck led Spain to a 4-1 romp over Russia and whilst that scoreline might have flattered there is no doubt Luis Aragones has assembled a side extremely capable of going all the way in this tournament.

Sweden still remain a mystery. Often they produce team efforts greater than the sum of its parts, the true value of their 2-0 win over Greece will only come to light after we've seen them (and the Greeks) play again. The jury is still out on how good Lagerback's men really are.

This match could very well answer that question and also confirm whether the Spanish can maintain a high level of form. They scored four and Torres didn't even get one of them ... how good must they be! This match has the potential to be a real barometer as to the form of both these sides.

As per usual we will be examining this match from two perspectives. Firstly, we will highlight the 10 Year Trends of each side. Looking at their record in competitive matches over the past decade and drawing conclusions from this data.

Secondly, we will examine the finer details of head-to-head form and previous tournament results, better known as the Match Facts, to formulate the best way of approaching these matches on Betfair. And, remember, the more information at your disposal, the better your decision making will be and, we trust, the better you profits will be.

Together this analysis will be used to predict the outcome of four key markets for each match. We will discuss the outright match result, the correct score market, first goalscorer and also the Over/Under 1.5 goals market.

Armed with this information you'll be ready to get stuck into the Betfair markets.

Spain v Sweden - 10 Year Trends

These are all competitive matches since January 1998. No friendlies just World Cup qualifiers and finals plus Euro qualifiers and finals.

Spain - P70 W46 D15 L9 F172 A40, clean sheets 35/70 (50%)
Sweden - P64 W40 D16 L8 F122 A35, clean sheets 37/64 (57%)

Both these sides bring impressive credentials to the table. Wins - Spain 65%, Sweden 62%. Losses - Spain 12%, Sweden 12%. The crucial difference may well come when the clean sheet statistics (Sweden lead Spain by 7%) meet the goalscoring figures (Spain average 2.45 goals/game, Sweden 1.90 goals/game. That potency in attack by the Spanish might just outweigh the Swede's defensive ability. We shall see!

Spain v Sweden - Match Facts

Not much in it on the head-to-head records. Spain edge the wins 5 to 3 with 4 draws and the last three meetings have seen a win, draw and loss for each side. The interesting point to note is that both shared the same qualifying group to get here, Spain won 3-0 at home, Sweden won 2-0 at home. That, in essence, illustrates the slender difference between these sides. Spain score more goals.

Aragones has a good side at his disposal. Mind you, how often have previous Spanish managers been in the same position and it's all gone horribly wrong? Spain need another good showing to confirm their credentials.

Sweden bring lesser ambitions to the table but that doesn't detract from their ability to get results. Lars Lagerback has an aging side but age brings with it experience and that could very well see them through.

Spain v Sweden - Market Analysis

Outright result - The strictest application of the statistics would say that Spain [1.7] are too short and Sweden [6.4] are too big for this match. The draw [3.85] is the price which is the closest to its statistical probability. Hard to suggest a total abandonment of the data so one either has to lay the Spanish at odds-on or look elsewhere for options which sit better with your opinions.

Correct Score - Spain won 7 of 12 qualifiers to nil. Sweden won 4 of 12 to nil. Also 4 of the last 6 meetings between these sides have been won to nil. That doesn't sit well with a draw so backers who still fancy a Spain win should have 2-0 [7.6] as their main fancy whilst value-seekers might pinch the [13.5] about Sweden causing a 1-0 shock.

First Goalscorer - last time out we said that Torres being too short would make a market for Villa. Well, here we say the opposite. Villa could well be the fall-guy as Torres [6.0] steals the glory. For Sweden, Henrik Larsson [10.0] just gets the nod.

Over/Under 1.5 goals - difficult to assess but the general view would be the presence of Torres, Villa, Larsson and Ibrahimovic would lead to goals being scored. Both sides do score and previous meetings (8 of the last 10) have all been 'over' the 1.5 mark [1.54].

Conclusion

Another match whose statistics say one thing although the popular opinion is for another.

Spain bring strong claims to this match but should that make us ignore the facts? No. Because long-term the formbook will win. Moreover, the Swedes are no back-numbers and have a recent win over the Spanish as testament to their own ability. Write them off at your peril.

In all, a great match-up of styles and views all of which will be played out on Betfair as the 90 minutes unfold!

Tags: David Villa, Euro 2008 betting, Euro 2008 odds