Match 13 - Italy v Romania / Dave Farrar / 12 June 2008 / Leave a comment

There was a predictably dramatic reaction back home after Italy's capitulation against Holland, but there was also an unusual undercurrent of reality. Italy were a little unlucky to concede goals the way that they did, but they were also outplayed, and after admitting that fact, the leading sports newspapers are urging Roberto Donadoni to make changes for the second match.

He will almost certainly bring Daniele De Rossi into the midfield to try and add some much needed verve and will be thinking seriously about starting with either Alessandro Del Piero or Antonio Cassano. I think that he'll keep it the same up front, mainly because Toto Di Natale, the player who would be replaced by either of that duo, was one of the Azzurri's better players in the first game. The much bigger problem in Berne was defensively, where Marco Materazzi and Andrea Barzagli looked like they'd never met each other before, and Cristian Panucci seemed to age over the ninety minutes, rather like a punch drunk boxer.

Rest assured that Donadoni and his coaching staff will have spent every hour available on the training ground working out those defensive issues, and we'll see a more solid Italy for this severe physical test. Romania weren't fancy against France, but then we never expected them to be, and they aren't unlike Greece in Euro 2004.

Their opponents know how they will play, but dealing with it is another thing entirely. I fancy the two massive central defenders to keep Luca Toni quiet, as he isn't the bravest player for someone of his size, but I just feel that Italy will have enough quality in forward areas to make the difference. It will be desperately close, but Italy are at their most dangerous when they're fighting for their tournament lives and I think that they will do just enough to edge a tight, dull game. I won't back them with a great deal of confidence, but Italy are the selection at 1.71

CORRECT SCORE

No one at this tournament is likely to beat Romania by more than one goal, if indeed they manage to beat them. Italy are looking for a hero here to give them some momentum, and I think that one of them will come good to set Italy on their way. Adrian Mutu will be desperate to prove his worth to his Serie A colleagues, but he does have a tendency to freeze on the big occasions, and he is by far and away Romania's main goal threat. A solitary second half goal will be enough here. I take Italy to produce a cautious, unconvincing, 1-0 win at 5.9

FIRST GOALSCORER

Rather like in the France v Holland game, it's a case of trying to find the hero. Italy are unlikely to score from a set piece against the super organised Romanians, and so a striker or attacking midfielder is the most likely source of goals. If Del Piero starts, then Juve's scorer of crucial goals is a confident selection. If not him, then the ultra mobile Di Natale is more likely to score than the more cumbersome Toni. You should be able to back him at around about 8.0.

HALF TIME

Italy are much more expansive under Donadoni than national stereotypes would suggest. Normally it pays to go against the flow of opinion and go over 2.5 goals in their games. Expect though, after the thrills and spills against Holland, a safety first approach from Italy. Romania will be the same solid and dependable team that we saw all through qualifying and against France, and if Italy do break them down then it won't be before half time. I think that this game will still be goalless going into the break, and advise a bet on either the 0-0 half time score, or simply the half time draw at 2.18.

CORNERS

One of the most surprising features of the Italy v Netherlands game, was that, for such an open match, there were only eight corners, and Italy won five of them. Italy defend wide areas wonderfully well, and even when they're loose at the back, they're trained not to concede corners. That's why Holland won only three. Romania won three and conceded three in that tedious game against France, and corners are a must sell in this game. Back 9 corners or under and also go for Italian corner supremacy.

Tags: Andrea Pirlo, Euro 2008 bets, Euro 2008 betting