Match 09 - Czech Republic v Portugal / Matthew Walton / 10 June 2008 / Leave a comment

There's little respite for the teams in this tournament as barely four days after playing their opening matches in Euro 2008 Group A's pacesetters take to the field once again.

Portugal were impressive in their 2-0 defeat of Turkey in Geneva on Saturday and whilst some pundits will say they beat little in overcoming the Turks, many will see that win as confirmation of their claims to the grand prize come June 29th.

By overcoming the hosts, Switzerland, 1-0 in Basle the Czech Republic merely franked the form over weaker opponents. Here they face a stiffer test and Karel Bruckner's side must go to the well once again if they aren't to face a nervous finale to this group stage.

Cynics could point to a tactical draw being the best result with both sides all but booking their places into the quarter-finals. However, there is the opportunity for either side to confirm their place in the last eight here and now - a chance either will gladly accept.

As per usual we will be examining this match from two perspectives. Firstly, we will highlight the 10 Year Trends of each side. Looking at their record in competitive matches over the past decade and drawing conclusions from this data. Secondly, we will examine the finer details of head-to-head form and previous tournament results, better known as the Match Facts, to formulate the best way of approaching these matches on Betfair. And, remember, the more information at your disposal, the better your decision making will be and, we trust, the better you profits will be.

Together this analysis will be used to predict the outcome of four key markets for each match. We will discuss the outright match result, the correct score market, first goalscorer and also the Over/Under 1.5 goals market.

Armed with this information you'll be ready to get stuck into the Betfair markets.

Portugal v Czech Republic - 10 Year Trends

These are all competitive matches since January 1998. No friendlies, just World Cup qualifiers and finals plus Euro qualifiers and finals.

Portugal - P68 W44 D15 L9 F157 A45, clean sheets 35/68 (51%)
Czech Republic - P68 W50 D6 L12 F150 A48, clean sheets 35/68 (51%)

Portugal lived up to their reputation against Turkey with (a) goals and (b) a clean sheet. They offer this potentially lethal combination once again in this match. The Czechs have very similar form to the Portuguese. A potent attack allied to a competent defence. Both sides have a better than 50% clean sheet record but both average more than two goals/game ... so something has to give!

Portugal v Czech Republic - Match Facts

It's difficult to be concrete in any assumptions based upon the history of former meetings. In fact, the most pertinent fact might be the even nature of these encounters. Their last game was over ten years ago and none of the last five matches have been decided by more than one goal.

Scolari's men played to form against the Turks and there seems little reason for a move away from the view they'll probably do it again. Expect a strong showing here.

Bruckner's side were less impressive against the Swiss but got the job done. They score, concede less and lose few. They have experience and will be well organised.

Portugal v Czech Republic - Market Analysis

Outright result - Purely on the statistics, Portugal at [1.93] are too short and the Czechs at [5.1] are too big. At [3.35] the draw is the one result which is priced correctly. So, do you go with the facts and simply lay the Portuguese or do you back the hunch they are a team in good order who showed better form in their first match than the Czech Republic?

Correct Score - Portugal scored in 13 of 14 qualifying matches and the Czechs in 11 of 12 games. The statistics would point to the Portuguese by the odd goal 2-1 [10.5] or the Czechs by the same 2-1 margin [24.0] but the 1-1 makes much appeal as a saver [7.4] - seen 4 times in 14 of Portugal's qualifiers and a recent Czech friendly against Denmark.

First Goalscorer - Portugal edge the first goal stakes and so Cristiano Ronaldo at around [5.2] has to have claims. We also championed the cause of Simao before the Turkey match and he has a chance of featuring here at [9.0].

Over/Under 1.5 goals - The potential of each side to score has to lead one to the 'over' at [1.59]. Each side averages over 2.0 goals/game in recent times and even allowing for the respective stronger opposition the chances of at least two goals is high.

Conclusion

Both sides have the option to stick or twist in this match. A draw would give both a strong hand going into the last group matches on Sunday, a win and they're all but through.

With both sides having solid credentials we should see a fair fight between attack and defence. Neither side is naive and know how to get a result. It's the immovable object against the irresistible force.

The underlying current to the game is whether the Portuguese, many people's fancy for the title, will continue their form. If you back them you do have to waive quite a lot of the statistical data which we've highlighted. Short-term that might work for you, long-term we'd back our own judgement. Either way, enjoy the game and take the exchange price of [1.57] on the 'over' as the best bet.

Tags: Cristiano Ronaldo, Czech Republic, Portugal, Simao