Match 09 - Czech Republic v Portugal / Dan Fitch / 10 June 2008 / Leave a comment

The opening game of an international football tournament tends to be like losing your virginity.

You wait for what seems an age, but ultimately it proves to be an unsatisfying experience for both parties.

Only on your second run out do things tend to hot up. You've now got a clear idea as to what is required of you and can focus on the task, rather than worrying about failure. Afterwards you can act all nonchalant and put the misery of that first experience to the back of your mind.

The Czech Republic and Portugal both shed their respective Euro 2008 cherries on Saturday, with opening day wins. A victory for either side here would put them into the next round and give them a great chance of winning the group.

Winning the group is especially important here as it will mean avoiding the ominous figure of Germany, if as expected they win their group. It won't be the first time that a group of men, far away from home, have been terrified of stumbling into a crack squad of Germans and therefore I'd expect neither team here to take anything for granted.

If the Czechs and Portugal do both progress and manage to overcome their quarter-final opponents, then they will meet again in the semi-final. This is a bizarre decision from UEFA. Why do they think the general public would rather see the same two teams meeting again, barely a week and a half since they last played, rather than an enticingly fresh match against a side from the other side of the draw?

Luckily the Czechs did nothing against Switzerland to suggest that they can bring about a state of déjà vu in the semis. Portugal however, very much looked like a side destined for the last four.

The debate regarding Portugal is whether they will persevere with the ineffectual Nuno Gomes, or play Ronaldo in the centre and bring in either Quaresma or Nani on the flanks. Gomes once again did his impression of Claude Rains and is clearly even less capable at this level now than he ever was.

Both Roma and Manchester United have demonstrated recently that it's possible to play without an out and out striker, but it would be a gamble for Scolari to make the switch now. I'd expect him to retain the same side and if they beat the Czechs, then tinker in the final group game.

Whatever Scolari decides, it doesn't look rosy for the overs backers. Orchestrated by the brilliant Deco, Portugal had a number of chances but couldn't convert.

Neither do the statistics look good for those wanting a cricket score. In European Championships since the 16-team format took effect in 1996, there have been only two occasions when two teams that have won their opening group matches, have played each other in the second game. On neither of these occasions did the match produce more than 2.5 goals.

Since Euro 96, Portugal have broke the 2.5 goals mark in 47% of their European Championship games, whilst the Czech Republic score a more healthy 57%. However, the Czech team that faced Switzerland didn't look a patch on the vintage that reached the final at Wembley 12 years ago.

That side beat Portugal 1-0 en route to the final, in what has been the only time that the two nations have faced each other. The current squad just doesn't look to posses the quality of teams gone by and badly miss Rosicky as a livewire link between midfield and attack.

Neither side has picked up any major injuries that will disrupt their starting elevens from the first matches. However, fans of amusingly named foreign footballers would have smirked at the news that Portugal's reserve goalkeeper Quim, has had to be replaced.

Under 2.5 goals is the odd on favourite at [1.55], with overs at [2.74]. Once again it's hard to dispute the reasoning of the savvy Betfair punters. For those wanting more value, the [2.74] for under 1.5 goals should be considered.

Tags: Czech Republic, Portugal