Featured Articles / Ben Lyttleton / 18 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Momentum has been the buzzword for top teams this week but history does not favour group winners, says Ben Lyttleton

This has been an unprecedented Euro in that for the first time since the competition was set up with 16 teams in four groups of four, each group winner has been determined after the first two matches. That's down to Uefa's new regulations on head-to-head encounters being decisive, and the cushion has given coaches the freedom to rest players, or not risk those already on a yellow card, for the final group game.

Portugal made eight changes to their team for their final Group A match against Switzerland, which they lost 2-0. Croatia made nine changes before facing Poland in a game that, despite their price of [3.1], they won 1-0. And Holland made nine changes for their match against Romania ­ when they were also at the outrageous [3.1], and won 2-0.

You can see why the coaches want to make these changes, as the prospect of key players picking up injuries in dead games is unthinkable, but is it worth the risk for a possible loss of momentum? Is it better to lose with a weakened side in that third game, or win with a stronger one? (The ideal would be to win with a weaker one, like Croatia and Holland, but then, not everyone can pull these things off like Slaven Bilic or Marco van Basten.)

Recent history shows that there is no major harm in losing that final game before the quarter-finals: after all, France changed their team around before playing Holland in their last game of Euro 2000. The Dutch won the game 3-2 to top the group, but it was France who had arguably the easier draw in the quarter and semi-finals, beating Spain and Portugal before beating Italy in the final.

Winning the final game, though, seems to provide a better chance of success in the quarter-finals: the Italians were already assured top spot in their group in Euro 2000, and they rested players before facing Sweden in their third group game. A last-gasp Alex del Piero winner provided another victory, and that momentum carried them on past Romania and Holland in the next two rounds. And who can forget the Czech Republic in Euro 2004, already qualified from Group D, with a side that contained nine changes (among them, no Pavel Nedved, Karel Poborsky and Tomas Rosicky) beating Germany 2-1 in Lisbon? Buoyed by that success, the Czechs went on to beat Denmark in the quarter-final.

Where does that leave us before the quarter-finals in Austria and Switzerland? Should we favour Germany at [3.4] because they have momentum as they beat Austria in their last game, or Portugal, at [2.56], as they had the luxury of resting their stars against the Swiss?

The market suggests the group winners have the clear advantage: Croatia are [2.04] to get past Turkey, who are [4.7] in Vienna on Friday night. Bilic now has a pleasant selection headache to deal with, both in terms of formation ­ to go with the two-man strike-force as he did against Austria, or the solo forward with Niko Kranjcar just behind as against Germany, as Ivan Klasnic, scorer of the winner against Poland, looked very sharp in that game. I would expect him to stick with the Germany formation and Kranjcar is an interesting price at [11.0] in the first-goalscorer market. Klasnic is [3.8] in the anytime scorer.

Despite Spain¹s failure to beat Italy in a competitive fixture for 88 years, the Group D winners are slight favourites at [2.7] to get past Italy, who are [3.1], in what promises to be a thrilling quarter-final. Italy have a habit of ruining Spanish dreams, and you can guarantee that the controversial 1994 World Cup quarter-final, when Mauro Tassotti elbowed Luis Enrique in the face, will have been replayed on Spanish TV all week. I prefer the Italy price in this one, although I do like the group winners in the other ties.

One note of caution: it may help to rest your players in the match before the quarter-finals, but in the last five Euros, only once has a team that topped their group gone onto win the competition. That was Germany in Euro 96.

Tags: Croatia, Euro 2008, Germany, Holland, Italy, Portugal, Quarter-final, Spain