Featured Articles / Ben Lyttleton / 25 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Arsenal coach Arsene Wenger did not look particularly twitchy when he was spotted deep in conversation with Zinedine Zidane during Spain's quarter-final win over Italy, but he admitted to some nerves when Cesc Fabregas, Arsenal's 21-year-old midfielder, stepped up to take his first penalty for six years to seal the victory. "I prayed for him to score and that penalty will improve his confidence, and Arsenal will reap the rewards," he said. You can assume that Zidane was just as happy about the result that sent Italy home (though for different reasons).

Spain's success has earned them a semi-final against their Group D opponents Russia, whom they dispatched 4-1 in their first game. They were [1.76] to win that game, and [2.46] to be leading at half-time: it is a sign of Russia's improvement since then that Spain have come out to [2.14] in the semi-final match odds, while Russia are [3.9] to win in 90 minutes.

Spain are the only group winners left in the competition, and in that respect, history does not favour them. In the last 20 years, only one group winner has gone on to life the trophy ­ that was Germany in 1996.

But that fact has not stopped Wenger from tipping Luis Aragones's side ­ now unbeaten in 20 games ­ to continue their run and reach the final. "I think Spain will beat the Russians because I think their team will considerably destabilise them with their capacity to hold onto the ball and move it around at speed," said the Gunners boss, who has been working at Euro 2008 as a summariser for TV station TF1.

"I fear the movement of the two Spanish strikers, with Villa who comes back into midfield, will pose enormous problems to the Russians' central defence, which is their weak point."

Russia are priced at [4.0] to keep a clean sheet, although Denis Kolodin, who struggled to cope with Fernando Torres and David Villa in that first game, is suspended and will miss out. That could be a blessing in disguise for Guus Hiddink. Hat-trick hero Villa, still out in front in the top-scorer race, is the same price as Torres, at [2.6] to score in the game, while Russia's shortest-priced forwards are Roman Pavlyuchenko at [3.45] and the impressive Andrei Arshavin at [3.6].

Arshavin has scored in both the games he has played and is still [32.0] for the top-scorer award. He has already been linked with a move to Arsenal although Wenger insisted he has never met the 27-year-old. "He is obviously the revelation of the tournament, and the way he can go past people in one-on-one situations, is absolutely incredible," he said. "It's the mark of great players." There have been doubts about Russian players' inability to succeed in western Europe but it is worth considering a little-known fact about Arshavin: his first professional game was for Zenit St. Petersburg in the Intertoto Cup in 2000 ­ when his side beat Bradford City 3-0 at Valley Parade!

Wenger is also expecting some goals in the tie, simply because of the way that Russia go on the offensive in their matches. The over-2.5 goals market is at [2.4]. "There was a lack of risk-taking in the quarter-finals, with the exception of the Russians, who play in a more vertical style than the others. They¹re looking to move forward straightaway," said Wenger.

The player that Wenger has nurtured over the last five years, Fabregas, may not even start the semi-final despite making such a major impact in the previous round ­ but he did come on as a substitute against Russia and score against them a fortnight ago. He is [5.3] to repeat the trick in the semi-final, and to keep Wenger happy. "He made a very good impression when he came on [against Italy], and was a big boost for his team," his boss added.

Tags: Arsene Wenger, Cesc Fabregas, Euro 2008 bets